Dubai’s real estate market recorded 18,038 transactions in September 2024, a new all-time monthly high with 73 percent of properties under construction selling as off-plan, according to new insight from Property Monitor.
The monthly analysis of Dubai’s real estate market revealed that September’s transactions surpassed the previous record of 17,139 in May this year by almost 900, highlighting continued growth and confidence in the sector.
“September 2024 was yet another ground-breaking month for Dubai’s real estate sector, setting new records in both sales transactions and prices,” stated Henry Bacha, CEO of Property Monitor.
Real estate market to grow 30 percent this year
The analysis also expects Dubai’s real estate market to record a 30 percent year-on-year growth this year. Sales in 2024 have now passed 131,000, just under 2 percent less than the full year of 2023.
To put this into perspective, by year-end 2024 Dubai will have reached a level of real estate sales activity quadruple that of pre-Covid trading. This phenomenal growth is not simply a post-pandemic recovery. It is unlike that of any other market in the world, marking a testament to the never-ending commitment of the UAE and Dubai government’s strategic plans, initiatives, and proactive approach to the evolution of the market.
Residential transactions
With 17,151 sales, residential transactions accounted for more than 95 percent of the September total. The highest transacted commercial property types were office spaces (1.9 percent), vacant land (0.95 percent), and hotel apartments (0.9 percent).
Last month, Emaar topped the off-plan sales charts with 2,343 registrations. Following that came DAMAC Properties with 1,516 and Sobha with 810.
September also set a new record for the highest-priced apartment sale of 2024: AED275 million for a five-bedroom apartment at The One on Palm Jumeirah. The lowest recorded sale price was AED124,000 for a studio in Dubai South.
“Our findings underpin the ongoing success and evolution of the property market, which continues to flourish and looks set to end the year on another high, with 30 percent growth compared to last year,” added Bacha.
Property prices rise
According to the Property Monitor Dynamic Price Index (DPI), Dubai’s real estate prices grew by 1.14 percent in September and currently stand at AED1,448 per square foot, 17.4 percent over the previous all-time high and market peak of September 2014. This brings the overall growth of the market cycle to 57.9 percent and marks the forty-seventh month since prices bottomed out in late 2020.
The median price for an apartment was AED1.3 million, for a townhouse AED2.76 million, and for a villa AED7 million, according to Property Monitor’s insight.
The research also shows a surge in mortgage activity, with transactions up 16.6 percent month-on-month. Almost 4,200 registrations took place in September as investors took advantage of lower interest rates.
“A robust pipeline of new projects and easing mortgage rates continue to drive demand for both off-plan and ready properties,” he added.
Read: Dubai Holding Asset Management rebrands residential portfolio to ‘Dubai Residential’
Market’s future outlook
As the final quarter of the year begins, Property Monitor expects the Dubai real estate market to sustain its positive momentum, driven by steady price growth and strong transaction volumes. “However, it’s crucial that monthly price appreciation remains moderate, ideally within the 1 percent range or lower, as any sustained increases above 2 percent could raise concerns about potential overheating,” added the report.
While the report does not foresee an overall slowdown, the gap between off-plan and completed property sales is likely to widen. This is due to a combination of the robust pipeline of off-plan projects and the availability of competitively priced inventory.
In this context, the rising level of off-plan resales must be carefully monitored, especially when considering the timeline to completion. A growing trend of flipping properties well ahead of their handover could place further pressure on both pricing and supply.
Meanwhile, ready properties could see a rise in demand as mortgage rates ease, but sellers should be cautious. Attempting to push aggressive pricing strategies may deter buyers, undermining the opportunity to capitalize on this demand.
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