Egypt GDP growth forecast indicates a rise to 3.5 percent for FY 2024/2025 and 4.2 percent for FY 2025/2026, driven by private consumption and remittances, according to the World Bank.
This expected GDP growth is primarily fueled by “private consumption growth amid gradually abating inflation, robust inflows of remittances, and improved sentiment,” as outlined in the institution’s Global Economic Prospects report for January.
In 2025, the state’s interest payments are anticipated to remain high, according to the report.
Economic slowdown in FY2023/24
During FY2023/24, Egypt experienced an economic slowdown, with growth falling to 2.4 percent. This decline was attributed to reduced shipping activity through the Suez Canal and decreased natural gas production. The contraction was further impacted by “the non-oil manufacturing sector’s downturn due to rising input costs, ongoing supply bottlenecks, and previous foreign exchange shortages.”
Read more: Egypt’s economy growth to rebound to 4.99 percent in 2025/26 amid policy tighteningÂ
Recovery signs following exchange rate liberalization
The liberalization of the exchange rate in March 2024 has helped to enhance investor confidence, which in turn has promoted private sector activity in the second half (H2) of 2024. Despite these optimistic signs, it is important to acknowledge that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecasts for Egypt’s real GDP growth downward by 0.5 percent and 1 percent for FY2024/25 and FY2025/26, respectively.
Key factors driving Egypt’s economic recovery
In January 2025, a report from the the Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC) highlighted that Egypt’s economy is projected to grow between 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent in 2025, driven by ongoing reforms aimed at boosting investments and curbing inflation.Â
Additionally, a recent report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that Egypt’s economy will grow by 4 percent in 2025, an increase from the anticipated 2.7 percent in 2024. The IMF forecasted Egypt’s GDP at constant prices to rise to EGP8.7 trillion in 2025, up from EGP8.4 trillion in 2024. At current prices, GDP is likely to increase to EGP17.5 trillion in 2025, compared to approximately EGP13.8 trillion the previous year.
International institutions, including the IMF, expect positive growth for Egypt in 2025. The government has enacted various reforms to enhance investments, private consumption, and remittances. The development of Ras El-Hikma and potential geopolitical easing may further support this recovery. In the medium term, the IMF projects growth to reach around 5 percent from 2025 to 2029. Meanwhile, the World Bank forecasts growth rates of 3.5 percent for 2025 and 4.2 percent for 2026, citing increased investments and improved private consumption, which is expected to rise by 4.8 percent in 2025, up from 4.6 percent in 2024. Recent planning ministry data shows Egypt’s GDP growth was 3.5 percent in the first quarter of 2024/25, an increase from 2.7 percent a year earlier.
