Egypt’s economic growth for the current fiscal year (FY) 2024/2025 is projected to hit 4 percent. According to a Reuters poll, this figure marks a drop from the 4.35 percent growth predicted in April and the 4.15 percent forecast in January.
Economic growth slowing in previous FY
The poll, which surveyed 17 economists, also indicated that Egypt’s economy grew by 2.9 percent in the FY that ended on June 30th, 2024, falling short of the 3 percent predicted in April and the 3.5 percent estimated in January.
However, the economy is expected to rebound with a growth rate of 4.99 percent in FY 2025/2026.
What are the factors constraining current FY’s growth?
James Swanston, economist at Capital Economics, noted that tighter fiscal and monetary policies, coupled with a weakened pound following the $8 billion agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in March, are likely to constrain growth this FY. Despite this, Swanston expressed optimism for stronger real gross domestic product (GDP) growth starting in FY 2025/2026.
Read more: Egypt sets sights on $5 billion investment goal with India by 2027
IMF slashes forecast, World Bank maintains projections
Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slashed its forecast for Egypt’s GDP growth by 0.3 percent for both the previous and current FYs. The global organization now expects Egypt’s real GDP to hit 4.1 percent in FY 2024/2025 and 2.7 percent in FY 2023/2024.
In contrast, the World Bank Group (WBG) reaffirmed its forecasts for Egypt’s GDP growth, maintaining it at 4.2 percent for FY 2024/2025 and 4.6 percent for FY 2025/26.
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