Egypt’s economy is expected to expand to 4.2 percent in 2024 and 4.6 percent in 2025-2026, according to the latest World Bank Global Economic Prospects report. However, the report expects growth in Egypt to slow in 2023-2024 (July 2023 to June 2024) to 2.8 percent due to the impact of regional tensions on shipping through the Suez Canal and the tourism sector.
The World Bank attributes Egypt’s economic expansion in 2024 to several factors including the rise in investments, particularly in the Ras El Hekma project with the UAE. In addition, it expects private consumption to expand due to the recovery in remittances and the decline in inflation. Exchange rate depreciation will also further boost Egypt’s net exports and overall economy.
Fiscal pressures remain
The report also noted that Egypt’s fiscal deficits will widen if it excludes the recent deal with the UAE. Hence, interest expenses have increased due to the tighter monetary policy and the exchange rate has significantly depreciated.
The World Bank also expects fiscal pressures to rise due to Egypt’s social mitigation measures and the negative impact on tax revenue from lower economic activity and consumer spending.
The report cites some risk factors to Egypt’s economy, including the intensification of attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, which could weigh on economic growth by reducing both external accounts revenues and economic activity.
Read: UAE’s real GDP to grow by 3.9 percent in 2024, 4.1 percent in 2025: Report
MENA region’s growth
In the Middle East and North Africa region, the report expects growth to pick up to 2.8 percent in 2024 and 4.2 percent in 2025 mainly due to the gradual increase in oil production and stronger economic activity. The World Bank downgraded its forecast in June from its January forecast due to the extensions of oil production cuts and the ongoing conflict in the region.
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