Egypt’s net international reserves reached $49.036 billion at the end of July 2025, compared to $48.700 billion at the end of June, marking an increase of $336 million, according to the Central Bank of Egypt. This level represents the highest foreign reserve balance in several years, reflecting a steady upward trend. Over the past three months, reserves have grown by approximately $1.2 billion, up from $47.82 billion recorded in May 2025.
Egypt’s inflation has continued to ease in recent months. According to the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), consumer price inflation fell to 14.9 percent in June 2025, down from 16.8 percent in May, and well below its peak of 38 percent in September 2023. On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged down by 0.1 percent in June, the first deflationary reading since May 2024, largely due to declines in food, meat, and produce prices. The core inflation rate, as tracked by the Central Bank of Egypt, recorded 11.4 percent in June 2025, further indicating a moderation in underlying price pressures. CAPMAS and the Central Bank of Egypt are the main official sources for these figures. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates Egypt’s average inflation rate at 19.7 percent for 2025, slightly higher due to year-average methodology.
IMF’s central role in economic support
On economic support, the IMF has played a central role. Egypt’s $8 billion Extended Fund Facility agreement with the IMF, originally signed in December 2022 and augmented in March 2024, is designed to stabilize the economy following currency shocks and soaring inflation. As of August 2025, the IMF has disbursed $3.5 billion, most recently releasing $1.2 billion in March 2025 following the program’s fourth review. However, further disbursements—including a planned $2.5 billion—are pending as the IMF links them to Egypt’s success in meeting reform targets such as state sector divestments, fiscal discipline, and exchange rate flexibility. The IMF Staff Report in July 2025 emphasized that while foreign reserves have rebounded and inflation has moderated, structural reforms—including privatization and subsidy reductions—remain “mixed” and a condition for future support.
Recently, the IMF has also raised its forecast for Egypt’s economic growth, now expecting GDP to rise 3.8 percent in 2024/2025 and 4.3 percent in 2025/2026, up from its January projections. This optimism is attributed to higher investment, a recovery in consumption, expected improvements in tourism, and potential gains in Suez Canal revenues. Nevertheless, the IMF cautions that Egypt faces a substantial external financing gap, projected at $8.2 billion for the 2025/2026 fiscal year, which underscores the continued need for reform, investment, and foreign support.
