According to a recent report, the commercial aviation fleet is projected to experience significant growth in the coming years. Over the next decade, the global fleet is expected to expand by 28 percent, increasing from 28,400 aircraft to 36,400 by 2034. In the Middle East, the fleet is anticipated to grow even more, with a projected increase of 51 percent, from 1,472 to 2,227 aircraft.
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A new study released by Oliver Wyman highlights the growth of the maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) sector globally. In 2024, the MRO sector is predicted to reach $104 billion, growing by almost 3 percent. On average, it is expected to expand by 1.8 percent annually through 2034.
Global growth rate
Globally, the aviation industry has now reached its pre-COVID peak, but future expansion will be slower. The fleet is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 2.5 percent, compared to the 2.9 percent forecasted in last year’s report. Narrowbody aircraft are expected to see a steady increase in their share of the fleet, rising from 61 percent in 2024 to 63 percent in 2034. This growth is driven by the resurgence of domestic air travel worldwide, which is projected to surpass pre-COVID levels.
Middle East fleet growth outstrips global average
In the Middle East, fleet growth is expected to outpace the global average. From 2024 to 2034, the region’s fleet is projected to grow at an annual rate of 4.2 percent, surpassing growth rates in other parts of the world such as Africa (2.3 percent), Latin America (1.9 percent), North America (1.8 percent), and Western Europe (1.0 percent). Narrowbody aircraft will be the primary driver of this growth. In a region where widebody aircraft have traditionally dominated, narrowbodies are expected to increase their share from 40 percent to 47 percent over the decade, while widebodies will decrease from 56 percent to 50 percent.
India leads
The report also reveals that India will become the industry’s growth leader, surpassing China for the first time. The Indian fleet is projected to expand by almost 13 percent in the first five years of the forecast period and nearly 10 percent over the entire decade. By 2034, the Indian fleet is expected to be 2.5 times larger than it is today, reaching a significant size of aircraft.
MRO in the Middle East compared to the world
The aviation’s global aftermarket, known as MRO, is crucial for keeping aircraft operational. The Middle East is expected to experience growth rates higher than the global average. From 2023 to 2034, the MRO market in the Middle East is projected to grow at an annual rate of 2.3 percent (compared to 1.8 percent globally). This growth will be driven by the development of local capabilities to capture value leakage. By 2034, the MRO market in the Middle East is estimated to be worth nearly $16 billion (compared to $124 billion globally).
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