Türkiye’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to expand by 3 percent in 2024, compared to an earlier forecast of 2.4 percent, international credit rating agency S&P Global said. The revision comes amid improved macroeconomic conditions for emerging markets, driven by resilient global growth and easing financial conditions. This positive outlook reflects Türkiye’s ability to navigate challenges and capitalize on domestic demand despite external pressures.
Türkiye’s economy to grow
According to S&P Global, Türkiye’s GDP is set for growth this year. The economy demonstrated resilience in 2023, growing by 4.5 percent despite a slowdown in main trading partners and natural disasters. Strong domestic demand played a crucial role in offsetting external challenges, underscoring Türkiye’s economic resilience.
Emerging markets
The report highlights significant growth divergence across emerging markets in 2024. While countries like Brazil, Mexico and India are expected to experience moderate but robust growth following strong performances in 2023, others such as Colombia, Peru and South Africa, which underperformed last year, are projected to grow modestly faster. S&P Global raised its 2025 outlook on emerging markets to 3 percent from 2.7 percent. Meanwhile, it downgraded its forecast for 2026 to 2.6 percent from 3 percent.
Analysts expect significant growth divergence across emerging markets in 2024, moderating for many countries that outperformed in 2023 and slightly increasing for some countries that underperformed.
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Global economic trends
S&P Global’s report also examines the global economic landscape, forecasting a 2.5 percent expansion for the U.S. economy in 2024, driven by a resilient labor market. Meanwhile, it kept its 2026 U.S. growth forecast unchanged at 1.5 percent. Despite slightly below-potential growth expectations in the coming years, global economic conditions have improved marginally due to resilient growth and easing financial conditions since the end of 2023. This has supported macroeconomic conditions for emerging markets. However, S&P Global explained that emerging markets might witness delayed growth due to the impacts of high interest rates and implications of the below-trend growth forecasts in the second half of 2024 in the U.S.
Despite those factors, S&P Global raises its total economic growth forecast for emerging markets to 4.2 percent in 2024 and 4.6 percent in 2025, reflecting improved macroeconomic conditions. Notably, China’s growth forecast remains steady at 4.6 percent for 2024, while India’s forecast sees an increase from 6.4 percent to 6.8 percent, highlighting positive momentum in key emerging economies.
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