The UAE was one of the first countries to submit an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Climate Agreement, setting a far higher carbon emissions reduction target than previously. This sends a strong signal that the oil-producing nation is serious about advancing the energy transition to attain its net zero target by mid-century.
Under the Paris Agreement of 2015, countries are required to submit updated NDCs every five years. The next round of NDCs, known as NDCs 3.0, is due by February 2025. These submissions are supposed to be more ambitious than previous ones and are necessary to align global emission trajectories in line with the Paris goal of keeping the global temperature rise this century well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. Current NDCs submitted in 2020 are deemed insufficient to attain that goal.
“The actions outlined in existing NDCs are on track for a catastrophic 2.5-2.9°C of warming by 2100,” says the World Resources Institute, a non-profit organization that tracks NDCs.
The UAE’s updated commitments
The UAE said in submitting its updated NDC in November, just ahead of the COP29 climate summit in Baku, that it reflects “a significant escalation in ambition and scope” compared with its second and updated NDC.
NDC 3.0 commits the UAE to a 47 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) by 2035 compared to 2019 levels. It is a significant increase over the second NDC submitted in December 2020, which set a target of reducing GHGs by 23.5 percent relative to a business-as-usual scenario for 2030. This, it said, translates into an absolute reduction of approximately 70 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions and aligns with the 2050 net zero target.
By extending the target to 2035, the UAE has granted itself a longer horizon to implement and achieve the more ambitious commitments than contained in its previous NDC, which was last updated before the COP28 climate summit in Dubai at the end of 2023.
The latest NDC incorporates more robust mitigation, adaptation, and resilience measures that are necessary to cope with the effects of climate change that were visible in the extreme weather events that occurred in the UAE and elsewhere in the region earlier this year. The NDC notes that while the UAE has thrived despite the harsh climate, severe water scarcity, and intensive heat, “the escalating climate crisis is expected to further strain its environment, economy, and society.”
Advancing clean energy transition
The key strategies contained in the latest NDC submission call for further acceleration of the transition to clean energy, with substantial investments in renewable energy projects and the implementation of advanced technologies to enhance energy efficiency and reduce emissions across industries. It plans to triple its investments in renewable energy over the next seven years, aiming for renewables to constitute 30 percent of its power generation capacity by 2030.
The UAE will explore pathways aimed at achieving a 50 percent reduction in emissions from the power and water sectors by 2035 relative to 2019 levels, it said.
The transportation sector, another major emitter of greenhouse gases, is also being targeted for decarbonization. This will be achieved through a comprehensive set of federal policy measures that include the development of a national policy for electric vehicles (EVs) and standards for EV charging stations.
The policy aims to develop the EV market with the goal of increasing the share of electric vehicles to 50 percent of total car sales by 2050 and contributing to a 40 percent reduction in energy consumption in the transportation sector.
In other areas traditionally reliant on oil and gas, the NDC is targeting a 27 percent reduction in emissions from industry and a 79 percent reduction from the building sector, which will be achieved by adopting more efficient cooling systems and energy efficiency measures.
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The role of renewables
At COP28, nearly 200 countries pledged to transition away from fossil fuels, and the UAE has set out its strategy to decarbonize its energy sector by incorporating carbon capture, utilization, and storage technology (CCUS) to mitigate emissions.
To this end, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has allocated $23 billion as part of its commitment to attaining net zero by 2045, five years ahead of the national target. ADNOC also aims to reduce its carbon intensity by 25 percent by 2030 through greater energy efficiency, zero routine flaring, reductions in methane emissions, and electrification of onshore and offshore operations using nuclear and solar energy sources.
The UAE has the largest share of renewable energy capacity in the GCC and has established itself as a regional leader. Yet despite the displacement of natural gas in power generation, renewables, and nuclear make up just over 7 percent of total primary energy consumption. To achieve its targets, the UAE will need to step up investments in new solar and wind capacity.
Clean energy accounted for 27.83 percent of the UAE’s power generation in 2023, according to Energy Minister Suhail al Mazrouei. The gains were due to the contribution of the 5.6-gigawatt Barakah nuclear power plant, where the fourth and final 1.4-gigawatt unit started up in September, pushing the share of clean energy above 30 percent.
In addition to solar, the UAE plans to integrate wind power into its energy mix.
Existing wind farms located in the emirate of Abu Dhabi at Al Sila, Sir Bani Yas Island, and Delma Island have a combined production capacity of up to 99 megawatts of carbon-free electricity. Abdulrahman Bafaraj, project development director at Emirates Water and Electricity Company, said in an article written for a specialist publication that a new 140-megawatt wind power farm is planned, which, when fully operational, will more than double wind generation capacity.
Reconciliation is needed
The UAE’s NDC 3.0 represents a significant step toward ambitious climate action but the strategy is seen by critics as incompatible with the expansion of oil and gas production capacity.
The latest NDC showcases the country’s ambition to lead climate action at home and abroad, committing to significant emission reductions and an accelerated transition to clean energy. With robust strategies covering all forms of renewable energy investments, incorporating biofuels and hydrogen, and industry-wide decarbonization, the UAE has positioned itself as a climate leader.
However, the dual pursuit of ambitious climate goals alongside plans to expand fossil fuel production has invited scrutiny and raised questions about the coherence of its overall climate strategy. To achieve its net zero aspirations, the UAE must reconcile these competing priorities and ensure that its actions align with the urgency to limit warming to 1.5°C.
About Kate Dourian
Kate Dourian is a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. She is also a fellow at the Energy Institute. Previously, she was the regional manager for the Middle East and Gulf states at the World Energy Council. Dourian joined the IEA from the Middle East Economic Survey where she was a senior editor. She was also responsible for compiling the monthly OPEC survey for MEES. From 2000-13, Dourian was the editor-in-chief for the Middle East for oil price reporting agency Platts.
Dourian has been a speaker and moderator at international conferences and has made many radio and television appearances, discussing energy and geopolitics on several platforms in English, Arabic, and French.
