Türkiye’s annual consumer price inflation declined to 38.1 percent in March 2025 from 68.5 percent during the same month last year, extending its fall from a peak of around 75 percent last May.
March’s inflation figure was below analyst estimates of 38.9 percent while also marking the 10th consecutive month of decline. It was also the lowest number since December 2021.
Commenting on the latest figures, Mehmet Simsek, Türkiye’s minister of finance, said: “We expect the impact of the recent volatility in the markets on inflation to be limited by tightening financial conditions. We will continue to use all our policy tools with strong coordination in line with our price stability target.”
Monthly inflation rises
The latest official data from the Turkish Statistical Institute revealed that Türkiye’s monthly inflation rate reached 2.46 percent, up from 2.27 percent in February, when the annual figure stood at 39.05 percent.
Annual inflation in one of the three main expenditure groups, food and non-alcoholic beverages, was slightly lower than the headline figure, at 37.12 percent. Price hikes were led last month by an 80.42 percent rise in education prices.
Prices also rose at a slower pace across other categories, such as footwear and clothing, which came in at 14.8 percent in March, down from 20.8 percent in the previous month. Meanwhile, transport inflation dropped to 21.6 percent in March, down from 23.4 percent in February.
Household equipment and furnishings inflation slid marginally to 32.4 percent in March, down from 33.6 percent in the previous month. Similarly, health inflation declined to 42 percent in March from 43 percent in February, while cafe, hotels and restaurant inflation came down from 45.9 percent in February to 43.4 percent in March. Recreation and culture price rises also eased.
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Türkiye’s economy to grow by 3 percent this year
Although Türkiye’s inflation rate has been on a downward trajectory for the last 10 months, it is still significantly higher than most other countries. However, the country’s central bank has already started decreasing interest rates, having slashed its key rate by 250 basis points to 42.5 percent in early March.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expected in its February report that Türkiye’s economy would grow by 3 percent this year. The bank also expects Türkiye’s gross domestic product (GDP) to hit 3.5 percent next year.
However, EBRD warned that geopolitical uncertainties and sticky inflation still continue to present downside risks to the Turkish economy. It also warned against rapid monetary policy loosening.
