The UAE’s gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to increase to 3.9 percent in 2024 on the back of robust growth in the non-oil sector, the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) said in its annual report on Thursday.
The non-oil sector is expected to grow 5.4 percent during the year, the report added.
UAE’s upward growth projection comes even as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a 3.1 percent growth for global GDP.
“The UAE’s expected outperformance shows a resilient economy amidst a still subdued global backdrop,” the central bank said.
Read: UAE GDP to grow 4.1 percent in 2025, says World Bank
Non-oil economy boost
The UAE’s foreign trade significantly contributed to last year’s economic performance, with non-oil exports and re-exports increasing by 12.3 percent to reach AED756 billion, driven by increased shipments of gold, diamonds and telecommunications equipment,” the report said.
During the reporting period, non-oil exports increased by 12.4 percent compared to the same period in the previous year, amounting to AED299 billion. Türkiye emerged as the UAE’s major non-oil export partner, accounting for 10.8 percent of exports, followed by India and Saudi Arabia, each with 9.1 percent. Overall, the most exported non-oil goods were gold, which accounted for 39.7 percent of the total non-oil exports, followed by aluminium at 6.5 percent, and petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals at 6 percent.
Re-exports also grew in the first three quarters of the year by 12.2 percent year-on-year, reaching AED457 billion. Saudi Arabia, holding a share of 10.6 percent, remained the most important destination for UAE re-exports, followed by Iraq (10.4 percent) and India (7.7 percent). Telecommunications equipment and diamonds dominated re-exports, accounting for 17.5 percent and 12.3 percent of the total, respectively.
Imports increased significantly by 16.9 percent year-on-year in the first nine months of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, reaching AED1,013 billion. This increase was supported by robust growth in the non-oil sector and a slight appreciation of the currency vis-à-vis trading partners.
Gold topped the list of the most imported goods, accounting for 19.2 percent of imports, followed by telecommunications equipment (9.8 percent), motor vehicles (6.4 percent) and diamonds (5.2 percent). China was the most important trading partner, accounting for 19 percent of total imports, followed by India at 7.7 percent and the United States at 7 percent.
UAE inflation to climb
According to the IMF, global inflation is projected to decline from 6.8 percent in 2023 to 5.8 percent in 2024 due to easing supply-side constraints, tight monetary stances worldwide, loosening labor markets, and lower energy prices. Inflation in the UAE fell to 1.6 percent in 2023 from 4.8 percent in 2022, with the CBUAE forecasting an acceleration in inflation to 2.3 percent in 2024, which would still be significantly below the world average.
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