At the end of every month, the UAE’s fuel price committee announces the retail prices for petrol and diesel for the upcoming month. Since the deregulation of fuel prices in 2015, the country has aligned its rates with global oil market trends, resulting in monthly fluctuations that reflect international supply and demand dynamics.
June has seen heightened volatility in global oil markets, driven by a mix of geopolitical developments, shifting demand forecasts, and speculation around OPEC+ production decisions. However, with Middle East tensions now appearing to ease, the outlook for crude oil prices—and by extension, UAE pump prices—remains uncertain.
This raises the pressing question for consumers and businesses alike: Will petrol prices in the UAE rise or fall in July?
Recent oil movements point to July decline
Crude oil, or WTI, hit a five-month high of $78.6 due to Middle East tensions and is currently trading at $65.6. Although a ceasefire has been initiated, tensions in the region haven’t subsided yet, leaving consumers across the UAE wondering how petrol prices will react next month.
Supply to rise
“Throughout the Middle East tensions, starting on June 12, the number of oil and LPG tankers has remained constant, indicating that the supply of oil has been steady despite the turmoil. Furthermore, considering the supply of oil, it remains abundant and is therefore expected to exert pressure on oil prices,” said Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer, Century Financial.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies made the decision to elevate output by 411,000 barrels per day in July, marking the third consecutive month in which the group known as OPEC+ has increased production by the same amount, as it aims to regain market share and penalize over-producers.
“The steady rise in supply points to a potential surplus in 2H, despite potentially stronger summer demand, as non-OPEC output increases and demand faces tariff-related turmoil,” added Valecha.
Global oil demand to increase
On the demand front, the EIA’s June 2025 outlook report revealed that global oil demand is forecasted to increase by 720 kb/d in 2025, marginally below last month’s estimate, as weak Q2 2025 deliveries in the U.S. and China undercut resilience elsewhere. Furthermore, growth in 2026, at 740 kb/d, will be hindered by a challenging economic outlook and the adoption of clean energy technologies.
“Overall, this suggests a lacklustre demand projection as well,” added Valecha.
He noted that from a seasonality standpoint, in the past 10 years, there has been a 50:50 chance for a positive or negative July month for oil, indicating no clear sign of bullishness or bearishness. However, the average return across the 10-year period has been about -2.5 percent.
“Hence, overall, all factors suggest a suppression in the petrol price in July,” he said.
June petrol prices in UAE
In late May, the UAE fuel price committee announced petrol and diesel prices for the month of June. The rates, effective from June 1, were as follows:
- Super 98 petrol will cost AED2.58 per litre, staying the same as AED2.58 in May.
- Special 95 petrol will be priced at AED2.47 per litre, compared to AED2.47 in May.
- E-Plus 91 petrol will cost AED2.39 per litre, the same as AED2.39 in May.
Diesel was charged at AED2.45 per litre, down from AED2.52 in May.
Read: Global oil demand to peak at 105.6 million barrels per day by 2029, says IEA
How the UAE determines petrol prices
Petrol prices in the UAE are determined by the UAE Fuel Price Committee, which meets monthly to review and adjust rates based on several key factors.
The most significant of these is the global price of crude oil, as fluctuations in international oil markets are directly reflected in local fuel costs. Additionally, supply chain expenses—including distribution and transportation—can influence petrol prices, especially when disruptions occur. The committee also considers market trends, such as changes in demand and consumption patterns, to inform its decisions.
By announcing price changes on a monthly basis, the UAE Fuel Price Committee ensures a degree of transparency, allowing residents to understand the rationale behind adjustments and maintain trust in the pricing mechanism.
