As the end of July approaches, the UAE’s fuel price committee is set to announce the retail prices for petrol and diesel for the upcoming month. Since the deregulation of fuel prices in 2015, the country has aligned its rates with global oil market trends, resulting in monthly fluctuations that reflect international supply and demand dynamics.
In July, UAE petrol prices witnessed a notable increase amid increased volatility in global oil markets, driven by a combination of geopolitical developments, shifting demand forecasts and speculation regarding OPEC+ production decisions.
Prices for July were as follows:
- Super 98 petrol cost AED2.70 per litre, compared to AED2.58 in June.
- Special 95 petrol was priced at AED2.58 per litre, up from AED2.47.
- E-Plus 91 petrol was priced at AED2.51 per litre, rising from AED2.39 in June.
- Diesel was charged at AED2.63 per litre, compared to AED2.45 previously.
So will UAE petrol prices rise or decline in August?
Forecasts point to a slight increase
For August, UAE petrol prices are set for a slight increase, mirroring a vigorous and strengthening global oil market, explained Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer, Century Financial. Prices of crude oil, following a phase of volatility and range-bound trading, are now showing upward momentum.
“This fresh momentum is largely driven by the widespread optimism in pivotal trade negotiations between the U.S. and its major trade partners, highlighted by the successful agreement with Japan and the impending agreement with the European Union. These are driving the global economic outlook, which has a direct corollary in increased expectations of demand for energy across most sectors,” he explained.
Valecha added that while OPEC+ is expediting its production increase, seeking to reverse earlier production cuts with a larger ramp-up in targets for August, the impact of this additional supply is expected to be offset by robust seasonal demand.
“Summer is typically the peak season for gasoline consumption, primarily due to increased global travel during vacation months. The peak summer driving season is a big price supporter. Thus, in August, the price of oil is expected to tick higher,” he added.
As of 13:11 GMT, Brent crude futures were up 28 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $69.46 a barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 27 cents, or 0.41 percent, at $66.30. Brent was heading for a 0.3 percent weekly gain at that level, while WTI was down around 1.5 percent from where it closed last week.
Key factors impacting oil market
Several factors continue to impact UAE petrol prices and supply-demand dynamics across the global oil market. Summer is typically the peak season for gasoline consumption, mainly owing to one simple reason: Summer is the travel season, Valecha explained. Across the globe, travelling tends to increase in the summer months, leading to higher prices.
Other factors driving oil demand are increased industrial activity and power requirements. According to the IEA, a similar trend is expected in 2025 as well. The burning of crude for power is expected to double during these months to around 900 kb/d, further tightening the market.
“However, towards the end of summer, refineries attempt to reduce their stockpiles, as they are entitled to sell different blends during summer and winter. Consequently, they seek to eliminate excess inventory, leading to a drop in oil prices towards the end of summer,” he added.
According to the IEA, global oil supply increased by a steep 950 kb/d MoM to 105.6 mb/d in June, led by Saudi Arabia. On 5 July, the OPEC+ alliance announced a larger-than-expected ramp-up in targets for August, of 550 kb/d.
“In conclusion, while seasonal travel is expected to boost oil prices, continued output hikes by OPEC+ pose a risk. However, in the short term, oil’s short-term supply-demand dynamics suggest that the demand outlook could ease concerns about surplus supply and boost prices,” Valecha added.
Read: UAE fuel prices for July 2025 reveal increases in petrol and diesel rates
Trump’s tariffs in focus
Markets are now watching the progress in U.S.-EU talks, which are reportedly nearing an agreement on 15 percent tariffs on goods imported from the EU to the U.S. Many traders remain concerned that Trump’s tariff policies will severely impact oil prices due to slower global economic growth and reduced energy demand.
Despite these uncertainties, year-on-year oil demand in the U.S. is projected to increase by an average of 54 tb/d in Q3 2025, up from a growth of 13 tb/d in 2Q25, according to OPEC. At the same time, forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025 remain unchanged at 1.3 mb/d.
