The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has published its data for September 2024 regarding global air cargo markets, indicating a sustained and robust growth in demand year-over-year.
Total demand, as measured in cargo ton-kilometers (CTKs), increased by 9.4 percent compared to September 2023 (with international operations seeing a rise of 10.5 percent), marking the 14th consecutive month of growth.
Additionally, capacity, assessed in available cargo ton-kilometers (ACTKs), rose by 6.4 percent relative to September 2023 (8.1 percent for international operations). This increase is primarily attributed to a 10.3 percent growth in international belly capacity, continuing the trend of double-digit annual capacity growth for an impressive 41 consecutive months.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, noted that September’s performance delivered encouraging news for the air cargo sector. He indicated that with a 9.4 percent increase year-on-year, cargo volumes are reaching all-time highs in demand. He also mentioned that yields are on the rise, up 11.7 percent compared to 2023 and 50 percent higher than 2019 levels. These indicators suggest a strong conclusion to the year. Looking ahead, the air cargo industry will be keenly observing the outcome of the U.S. elections for insights on the future of U.S. trade policy.
Several noteworthy aspects of the operating environment include:
- Year-on-year, industrial production experienced a 1.6 percent increase, while global goods trade grew by 2.8 percent for the sixth consecutive month. Monthly trade rose by 1.4 percent, marking the highest growth in seven months.
- The Purchasing Managers Index (PMIs) for global manufacturing output and new export orders fell below the 50-point threshold, at 49.4 and 47.5 respectively, signaling contraction.
- In the U.S., headline inflation, as reflected in the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI), dipped by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4 percent in September, marking the seventh consecutive month of declining inflation. In the same month, the EU’s inflation rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 2.1 percent, continuing a trend that began in January 2023. Meanwhile, China’s consumer inflation remained low at 0.4 percent in September amid concerns regarding an economic slowdown.
September regional performance
- Asia-Pacific airlines experienced a year-on-year demand growth of 11.7 percent for air cargo in September, with capacity increasing by 8.5 percent.
- North American carriers recorded a year-on-year demand growth of 3.8 percent for air cargo in September, alongside a 4.2 percent increase in capacity.
- European carriers also saw a year-on-year demand growth of 11.7 percent for air cargo in September, with capacity rising by 7.5 percent.
- Middle Eastern carriers experienced a year-on-year demand growth of 10.1 percent for air cargo in September, with a capacity increase of 2.9 percent.
- Latin American carriers reported a remarkable year-on-year demand growth of 20.9 percent for air cargo in September, the highest among all regions, while capacity increased by 7.9 percent.
- African airlines noted a year-on-year demand growth of 1.7 percent for air cargo in September, the slowest among regions, although capacity increased significantly by 13.9 percent.
Trade lane growth
International routes demonstrated exceptional traffic levels for a fifth consecutive month, with a year-on-year increase of 10.5 percent in September. Airlines are benefiting from rising e-commerce demand in both the U.S. and Europe, amidst ongoing capacity constraints in ocean shipping.
- IATA’s statistics encompass both international and domestic scheduled air cargo for IATA member and non-member airlines.
- The total cargo traffic market share by region in terms of CTK is as follows: Asia-Pacific 33.3 percent, Europe 21.4 percent, North America 26.9 percent, Middle East 13.5 percent, Latin America 2.8 percent, and Africa 2.0 percent.
- The trade lane market share, calculated based on full-year 2023 CTK data and including all transport directions, is as follows: Asia-North America 25.0 percent, Asia-Europe 19.4 percent, North America-Europe 14.3 percent, Middle East-Asia 7.2 percent, Within Asia 6.7 percent, Middle East-Europe 5.0 percent, Within Europe 1.9 percent, and Africa-Asia 1.2 percent. Collectively, these selected trade lanes represent 80.7 percent of the global air cargo traffic in 2023.
Strong demand growth in August
The global air cargo industry saw significant annual demand growth in August, achieving the ninth consecutive month of double-digit increases, as reported by IATA in October. Overall demand, measured in CTKs, rose by 11.4 percent compared to August 2023, with international operations experiencing a 12.4 percent increase. This substantial growth has led to volumes reaching levels not seen since the record highs of 2021. ACTKs increased by 6.2 percent year-on-year for August, with international operations up by 8.2 percent. This growth was predominantly driven by a 10.9 percent rise in international belly capacity, supported by passenger market growth. The industry-wide capacity has reached an unprecedented peak.
Middle Eastern airlines reported a 13.5 percent year-on-year increase in air cargo demand for August. Notably, the Middle East–Europe market excelled with a 28.9 percent surge, surpassing the growth of the Middle East-Asia market, which grew by 13.5 percent. Capacity for August also saw a year-on-year increase of 4.0 percent.
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