With a strong air cargo market exceeding pre-pandemic levels, Boeing forecasts continued long-term growth, stating that air cargo traffic will increase by an average of 4 percent annually through 2043. Boeing’s 2024 World Air Cargo Forecast (WACF), the biennial overview and long-term outlook for the air cargo industry, expects the global air cargo fleet to rise to 3,900 airplanes by 2043, a two-thirds increase from 2,340 freighters in 2023. Driven by demand in high-growth Asian markets, the large widebody freighter fleet will nearly double.
“Supply chain diversification, rising economies in Southeast Asia, and growth of e-commerce on both sides of the Pacific are expected to drive air trade growth. Though the challenge of directionality is expected to remain in the future, volumes in the total market are projected to more than double by 2043,” Boeing added.
Demand for Chinese goods drives growth
“As the quickest and most reliable way to move goods, air cargo’s sustained growth has returned the industry to its long-term trend. There will be many drivers for continued freighter demand over the next 20 years, including expansion of emerging markets and global growth in manufacturing and e-commerce,” said Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president of commercial marketing.
East, South Asian markets to see highest growth
The report also notes that nearly half of production and conversion deliveries will replace retiring freighters with more capable and fuel-efficient models. Due to recent market needs, many older jets remain in service.
East and South Asian markets will see the highest traffic growth per year due to expanding economies and rising consumer demand. With the Asia-Pacific fleet expected to nearly triple, carriers in that region will require the most deliveries at 980, followed closely by North America at 955. These two regions will account for more than two-thirds of global deliveries. Moreover, India’s domestic air cargo market will nearly quadruple as express and e-commerce networks expand.
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Express carriers to grow 5.8 percent annually
Boeing expects express carriers, which accounted for 18 percent of total air cargo traffic in 2023, to grow at an average annual rate of 5.8 percent. Due to their greater flexibility in handling express cargo, general cargo as well as e-commerce, these carriers will likely outpace overall industry growth and increase their market share to 25 percent by 2043. However, other types of carriers will remain essential to e-commerce transport, particularly as e-commerce shipments become denser over time.
