Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda has hinted at a potential acceleration in inflation in the next few months. His comments have ignited speculation among investors and economists alike, with many anticipating another rate hike in the coming months.
Ueda’s mention of a possible timing for inflation acceleration drove two-year Japanese bond yields to their highest levels in over a decade. This surge helped the yen rebound from its recent 34-year low. Moreover, it provided some relief for policymakers concerned about the economic ramifications of the currency’s weakness.
Moreover, Ueda emphasized the Bank of Japan’s readiness to respond with monetary policy if significant currency movements impact inflation and wages. This statement implies that sharp declines in the yen could influence the timing of the next rate hike.
Ueda’s remarks underscore the Bank of Japan’s confidence in achieving its 2 percent inflation target. He stated that the sustainable and stable achievement of this target is increasingly within reach. This also provides a strong rationale for potential adjustments in interest rates.
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Market response
Following Ueda’s comments, Japanese finance minister Shunichi Suzuki also issued fresh warnings regarding currency fluctuation. He indicated a willingness to explore all options to address excessive yen depreciation. Market reactions were swift, with the yen reaching a two-week high and two-year government bond yields rising to 0.21 percent, their highest level in 13 years.
Analysts suggest that another rate hike from the Bank of Japan by autumn is becoming a realistic scenario, with some even speculating on the possibility of a hike as early as July-September. However, Ueda cautioned that any decision on interest rates would depend on data and Japan’s progress toward achieving sustainable inflation.
A recent Reuters poll revealed that over 50 percent of economists expect another rate hike this year. October-December emerged the most popular bet on the timing.
Data since then has fluctuated with consumption and output weakening. However, the wage outlook continues to improve. Hence, Japanese firms agreed to raise wages by 5.24 percent this year, the highest increase in 33 years.
In a report this week, the Bank of Japan stated that the wage hikes also include smaller firms in regional Japan. This is pushing firms to increase their prices to counter labor costs.
Adding to the yen headwinds, an index measuring the health of Japan’s economy fell for the second month in a row today. This signifies that growth may have peaked and is now headed for a downtrend due to a decline in factory output.
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