Crude oil prices inched up in early trade on Monday but remained hindered by uncertainty surrounding trade talks between the U.S. and China, which cloud the outlook for global growth and fuel demand. Additionally, the prospect of OPEC+ raising supply casts a shadow over the market.
Brent crude futures increased by 38 cents to $67.25 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 41 cents, reaching $63.43 a barrel.
“Absence of news is pushing oil prices modestly higher as traders are positioned short ahead of potential increased OPEC+ supply from the May 5 meeting and a significant production boost in the USA,” stated Reuters, referencing Michael McCarthy, chief executive officer of online trading platform Moomoo Australia.
Some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, collectively known as OPEC+, are anticipated to suggest accelerating oil output hikes for a second consecutive month when they convene on May 5.
Expectations of oversupply weigh on market
Expectations of oversupply, along with concerns regarding the impact of tariffs on the global economy, caused both Brent and WTI to decline by more than 1 percent last week. The market has been shaken by conflicting signals from U.S. President Donald Trump and Beijing regarding progress in de-escalating a trade war that threatens to undermine global growth.
“Market players will remain on the lookout for a thaw in the U.S.-China trade war as an opportunity to buy,” Reuters reported, citing Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.
Read more: Oil prices rise to $66.98, set for weekly loss on higher global supply potential
U.S. Treasury Secretary’s remarks
In the latest comments from Washington, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday did not support Trump’s assertion that negotiations with China were ongoing. Earlier, Beijing denied any discussions were taking place.
Many participants in the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings indicated that Trump’s administration remains conflicted in its demands from trading partners affected by his sweeping tariffs.
Investors are also monitoring nuclear talks between Iran and the United States in Oman, which are set to continue this week. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi expressed that he remains “extremely cautious” about the success of the negotiations.
In Iran, a powerful explosion at its largest port, Bandar Abbas, resulted in at least 40 fatalities and more than 1,200 injuries, according to state media reports on Sunday.
On the same day, top officials in the Trump administration urged Russia and Ukraine to make progress on a peace deal, following a one-on-one meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the Vatican the day prior.
