Oil prices rose on Monday after a drop in early trading, as the United States refrained from imposing additional measures to curb Russia’s oil exports in a bid to end the Ukraine war after talks between the two countries’ leaders.
Brent crude futures gained 4 cents, or 0.06 percent, to $65.89 a barrel by 5:30 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 12 cents, or 0.19 percent, to $62.92.
Trump seeks Russia-Ukraine peace deal
Oil prices fell as U.S. President Donald Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, signaling greater alignment with Moscow on pursuing a peace agreement rather than prioritizing a ceasefire.
On Monday, Trump is scheduled to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders in a bid to secure a swift peace deal to end Europe’s deadliest conflict in eight decades.
Trump said on Friday that he did not see an immediate need to impose retaliatory tariffs on countries such as China for purchasing Russian oil, though he cautioned that such measures could be considered “in two or three weeks,” easing concerns over potential disruptions to Russian supply.
With a lack of concrete outcomes largely priced in, the market remains in wait-and-see mode, leaning bearish on expectations that an end to hostilities in Ukraine could free up additional Russian barrels for the global crude supply pool, and in turn, pressuring oil prices.
China, the world’s largest oil importer, remains the top buyer of Russian crude, followed by India. The key market concerns was potential secondary tariffs on major importers of Russian oil, but President Trump has signaled he will hold off on additional measures for now—at least with regard to China.
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Fed rate cut in focus
Investors are also awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at this week’s Jackson Hole symposium for signals on the trajectory of interest rate cuts that could help propel equities to fresh record highs. Powell is expected to strike a cautious, data-dependent tone, with one more payrolls release and Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due ahead of the September 17 central bank meeting.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing an 84.8 percent chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month.
The recent increase in the U.S. producer price index raised doubts about how aggressively the Fed might cut rates this year. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer prices rose only slightly in July, supporting hopes for a Fed rate cut. However, the stronger-than-expected PPI reading has tempered expectations for an aggressive easing cycle, making a 50-basis-point reduction at the next meeting less likely.
Last week, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that a 50-basis-point rate cut in September is not justified, contrasting with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s view that such a move is possible.
