Oil prices continued their downward trend on Monday following OPEC+‘s decision to implement another significant production increase in September. Concerns regarding a slowing economy in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer, are compounding the pressure.
Brent crude futures dipped by 40 cents, or 0.57 percent, settling at $69.27 a barrel by 01:15 GMT (currently trading above $69.4). In contrast, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $66.96 a barrel, down 37 cents, or 0.55 percent (currently trading above $67.15), after both contracts had closed around $2 a barrel lower on Friday.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, collectively known as OPEC+, reached an agreement on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September. This decision is part of a series of accelerated output increases aimed at regaining market share, citing a robust economy and low stockpiles as the rationale behind this move.
This action, which aligns with market predictions, represents a complete and early reversal of OPEC+’s largest set of output cuts, along with a separate increase in production for the United Arab Emirates, totaling about 2.5 million barrels per day, or approximately 2.4 percent of global demand.
Market resilience despite losses
“Despite OPEC+’s planned production increase in September, the crude oil market displays underlying bullish momentum. Today, Brent and WTI both rebounded by 0.68 percent to $69.50 and $66.90 respectively, defying previous session losses, underscoring market resilience. While the 547,000 bpd increase from OPEC+ (part of a larger 528,000 bpd total quota adjustment) aims to regain market share, the escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding Russian oil could significantly tighten global supply,” Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer, Century Financial, told Economy Middle East.
“President Trump’s aggressive stance, threatening 100 percent secondary sanctions on Russian crude buyers, risks removing up to 2.75 million bpd from the seaborne market, potentially forcing major importers like India and China to seek alternative, more expensive sources.
This prospect of substantial supply disruption, combined with renewed expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts following weaker US jobs data, could stimulate demand as a weaker dollar makes oil more affordable. Should these sanctions materialize and global growth avoid a significant downturn, the tightening supply-demand balance would create a powerful tailwind for oil prices,” he further noted.
Investor caution amid sanctions
Nevertheless, investors are cautious about potential further U.S. sanctions on Iran and Russia, which could disrupt supplies. U.S. President Trump has threatened to impose 100 percent secondary tariffs on Russian crude buyers in an effort to pressure Russia into ceasing its military actions in Ukraine.
At least two vessels loaded with Russian oil, destined for refiners in India, have diverted to alternative destinations in light of the new U.S. sanctions, according to trade sources reported on Friday, along with LSEG trade flow data.
Concerns regarding U.S. tariffs affecting global economic growth and fuel consumption continue to loom over the market, especially following U.S. economic data indicating jobs growth on Friday fell short of expectations. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated on Sunday that the tariffs imposed last week on numerous countries are likely to remain in effect rather than be reduced amid ongoing negotiations.
Read more: Crude oil prices rise above $71.8 amid new tariffs impacting Russian supply
U.S. oil consumption projections
According to the latest official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. oil consumption in 2025 is projected at 20.4 million barrels per day, up from 20.3 million barrels per day in 2024, while U.S. oil production is anticipated to reach 13.37 million barrels per day in 2025—slightly below previous estimates due to lower oil prices and ongoing economic unpredictability stemming from shifting U.S. tariff policies. Globally, oil demand is forecast to exceed 105 million barrels per day in 2025, according to Statista, marking a new high in global consumption.
OPEC+’s announcement on Sunday, formalizes a full reversal of output cuts initially implemented in 2023, with the latest meeting attended by major producers such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. The monthly production adjustments began in April 2025, and Brent crude prices have remained close to $70 a barrel, rebounding from lows in April.
Decline in Russian oil exports
Recent shifts in Russian oil exports, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, show that Russia exported 24.8 million tonnes of oil by sea in June 2025, a 5 percent month-on-month decline, with over half of these volumes now transported on G7+ tankers (representing 56 percent of exports, up from 36 percent in January). The U.S. Department of the Treasury intensified sanctions in early 2025, targeting two major Russian oil producers, over 180 vessels, oil traders, and oilfield service providers, substantially increasing sanctions risks for the Russian oil trade. These actions are underpinned by determinations made under Executive Order 14024 and accompanied by parallel measures from the United Kingdom.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s new tariff schedule imposes duties ranging from 10 percent to 41 percent on goods from several countries including India and Indonesia, and he continues to threaten even higher tariffs on countries that import Russian oil. Experts warn that continued tariff uncertainty could constrain global economic growth and potentially curtail future oil demand. The Energy Information Administration recently lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by 400,000 barrels per day, attributing the cut to economic uncertainty and trade tensions.
