Oil prices experienced minimal movement on Tuesday, following three consecutive days of declines fueled by growing oversupply concerns after OPEC+ announced another substantial output increase for September. Nevertheless, the market was supported by the potential for further disruptions in Russian supply.
Brent crude futures held steady at $68.76 a barrel as of 00:36 GMT (currently trading above $68.62), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dipped by 2 cents, or 0.03 percent, settling at $66.27 a barrel (currently trading above $66.13).
Both contracts had fallen by over 1 percent in the prior session, reaching their lowest point in a week. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively referred to as OPEC+, account for approximately half of the world’s oil supply. The group had been limiting production for several years to bolster the market, but this year they initiated a series of accelerated output increases to reclaim market share.
In their most recent decision, OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September. This represents a complete and premature reversal of a significant portion of the group’s output cuts, which totaled around 2.5 million bpd, or about 2.4 percent of global demand. However, analysts warn that the actual volume returning to the market may be lower.
U.S. pressure on India regarding Russian oil
Simultaneously, U.S. demands for India to cease purchasing Russian oil are raising concerns about potential disruptions in supply flows, as Washington explores avenues to pressure Moscow into a peace deal with Ukraine. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to implement 100 percent secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian crude, following a 25 percent tariff on Indian imports announced in July.
Traders are also on the lookout for any updates regarding the latest U.S. tariffs on its trading partners, which analysts fear could hinder economic growth and dampen the growth of fuel demand.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil supply continues to trend upward, with forecasts indicating a 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) increase for 2025, driven mainly by Saudi Arabia’s capacity to bring more barrels to the market. Total OPEC+ crude production rose to 42.7 million bpd in June, with Saudi Arabia raising its output by 700,000 bpd. Meanwhile, global oil demand growth is projected to be the slowest since 2009 (excluding the COVID-19 slump), increasing by only around 700,000 bpd this year. The IEA attributes this moderate demand growth to robust electric vehicle adoption and persistent economic headwinds, particularly from escalating trade tensions and new tariff regimes.
Read more: Crude oil prices decline to $69.4 as OPEC+ increases production levels
Projected growth in fuel consumption
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that global liquid fuel consumption will rise by 0.8 million bpd in 2025, with most growth coming from non-OECD countries, notably India and China. Simultaneously, global liquid fuels production is expected to rise by 1.8 million bpd in 2025, with most of the increase led by countries outside OPEC+, including the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana. As a result, global oil supply is anticipated to reach an all-time high of 104.2 million bpd in 2025, with production outpacing demand by a notable margin according to the World Bank, which expects global oil demand to rise by just 0.7 million bpd in 2025.
The Brent crude oil price is projected to average between $61 and $74 per barrel for 2025, depending on the forecasting organization. For example, the U.S. EIA forecasts Brent crude averaging $61 in the second half of 2025, while Goldman Sachs expects an average of $64 and JP Morgan projects $66 per barrel that year. The World Bank, in its May 2025 commentary, asserted the Brent oil price would average $64 for the year, which is $17 lower than 2024’s average. This trend is attributed to strong supply growth and only moderate increases in demand.
Declining Russian exports
Russia’s oil exports, meanwhile, have faced sharper pressure. As of July 2025, Russia’s crude oil exports declined by nearly 30 million barrels (about 4 percent) compared to the first seven months of 2024, with ongoing Western sanctions and new U.S. tariffs compounding these effects. Asia, primarily China and India, remains the main destination for Russian oil, but Indian buyers are now pressing for deeper discounts due to growing sanctions risks and the likelihood of additional U.S. penalties. Shipments to Europe have collapsed, and a greater share of exports is now reliant on the so-called “shadow fleet,” though increased Western intervention is shifting more Russian oil onto tankers with G7 connections as transport markets adapt.
Domestically, U.S. tariffs have markedly increased in 2025, now averaging 22.5 percent—the highest since 1909. Economic assessments from Yale University’s Budget Lab and the International Monetary Fund indicate these tariff measures will result in higher consumer costs (average household losses of $3,800 in 2024 dollars due to tariffs), raise inflation, and shave 0.5 to 0.9 percentage points off U.S. GDP growth this year. These macroeconomic effects are expected to curb global fuel demand growth and add further volatility to oil price forecasts.
