Oil prices declined on Tuesday amid rising concerns that the escalating trade conflict between major crude consumers, the U.S. and the European Union, could hinder fuel demand growth by stifling economic activity, which has negatively impacted investor sentiment.
Brent crude futures saw a decrease of 52 cents, or 0.75 percent, settling at $68.69 a barrel by 03:25 GMT (currently trading above $68.60). Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was priced at $66.69 a barrel, down 51 cents, or 0.76 percent (currently trading above $65.35). Both benchmarks experienced a slight decline on Monday.
The August WTI contract is set to expire on Tuesday, with the more actively traded September contract dropping 54 cents, or 0.82 percent, to $65.41 a barrel.
Supply concerns eased
Supply concerns have largely diminished, thanks to major producers ramping up output and the ceasefire established on June 24, which ended the hostilities between Israel and Iran. However, apprehensions regarding the global economy are growing amid shifts in U.S. trade policy.
In a significant development, the Iraqi government has officially resumed crude oil exports from the Kurdistan Region after a halt lasting over two years. This move is anticipated to ease tensions between Baghdad and Erbil while enhancing national export volumes. Kurdistan aims to contribute 230,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude to Iraq’s market once exports are fully operational. The prospect of increased crude exports from Iraq may augment global oil supplies and exert downward pressure on WTI prices in the short term.
Furthermore, the impending U.S. tariff deadline could also affect WTI prices. U.S. tariffs on EU imports are expected to take effect on August 1, raising trade anxieties that extend beyond the oil sector. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick expressed optimism about reaching an agreement with the EU, yet the ongoing tariff risks continue to limit crude’s potential for price increases.
Read more: Oil prices climb to $69.36 as new EU sanctions hit Russian oil supplies
Support from a weaker dollar
The European Union’s measures regarding Russian crude supply may lend some support to oil prices. Last week, the EU approved the 18th package of sanctions against Russia due to its conflict in Ukraine, which also targeted India’s Nayara Energy, an exporter of oil products refined from Russian crude. This action followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to impose sanctions on buyers of Russian exports unless a peace deal is negotiated within 50 days.
A weaker U.S. dollar has provided some support for crude prices, as buyers using alternative currencies are finding it relatively less expensive. The EU is also contemplating a wider array of counter-measures against the United States, as the chances of a favorable trade agreement with Washington continue to diminish, according to EU diplomats. The U.S. has threatened to implement a 30 percent tariff on EU imports come August 1 if no agreement is reached.
Additionally, there are indications that the rising oil supply is beginning to saturate the market, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies begin to unwind their output cuts. Data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) revealed that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports in May surged to their highest level in three months.
