Oil prices were relatively stable on Monday as investors awaited the outcome of the Iran-U.S. nuclear talks and key economic data from China to evaluate the potential impact on commodities demand following trade tensions with the United States.
Brent crude futures dipped by 5 cents to $65.36 a barrel by 00:22 GMT (currently standing above $65), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was slightly higher at $62.52 a barrel, up 3 cents (currently standing above $61.6). The front-month June WTI contract is set to expire on Tuesday, with the more active July contract falling 4 cents to $61.93 a barrel.
Both contracts experienced a rise of more than 1 percent last week after the U.S. and China, the two largest economies and oil consumers in the world, agreed to a 90-day pause in their trade war, during which both sides would sharply reduce trade tariffs.
China is expected to release a significant amount of data, including industrial output, later on Monday. “Any sign of weakness could weaken sentiment that was boosted by the U.S. pause on Chinese tariffs,” Reuters reported, citing analysts from ANZ in a note.
The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Iran-U.S. nuclear talks also provided support for oil prices. U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff stated on Sunday that any agreement between the United States and Iran must include a commitment not to enrich uranium.
Read more: Oil prices set for second weekly rise as trade tensions ease — Brent gains 0.02 percent
Goldman Sachs’ oil price forecasts
Goldman Sachs predicts that increased oil supplies from Iran, along with rising inventories, could lead to lower oil prices by 2026, despite projections for global GDP growth. The bank maintains a cautious outlook on oil prices due to potential increases in Iranian production and high inventories in OECD countries. It expects Brent and WTI oil prices to average $60 and $56 per barrel for the remainder of 2025, and $56 and $52 per barrel in 2026, which is $4 and $8 below current futures prices. With a potential U.S.-Iran nuclear deal, Iran’s output could reach 3.6 million barrels per day, significantly enhancing supply.
On the demand front, Goldman Sachs has slightly increased its global demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, driven by lower tariffs and improved GDP expectations. However, if global GDP slows and OPEC reverses production cuts, Brent prices could fall to $40 a barrel by late 2026.
