Oil prices rose on Wednesday as concerns about supply are reemerging, while peace talks aimed at resolving Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are expected to take longer. This situation maintains sanctions on Russian crude and increases the likelihood of additional restrictions on its buyers.
Brent crude futures were priced at $65.89 a barrel, an increase of 10 cents, or 0.15 percent. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for September delivery, which are set to expire on Wednesday, rose by 12 cents to reach $61.89 a barrel, up 0.19 percent. The more-active October contract stood at $61.92 a barrel, reflecting a rise of 15 cents.
Prices had settled down more than 1 percent on Tuesday due to optimism that a deal to end the war seemed closer, which would suggest an easing of sanctions on Russia and an increase in global supply. However, despite comments from U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday regarding the potential for air support as part of a deal to conclude Russia’s war, he also acknowledged that Russian President Vladimir Putin may not be inclined to negotiate after all.
On Monday, Trump mentioned that he was arranging a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to be followed by a trilateral summit involving the three leaders. On Tuesday, Trump noted discussions about potential talks between Zelenskyy and Putin in Hungary with Prime Minister Viktor Orban. However, Russia has yet to confirm its participation in talks with Zelenskyy.
In the United States, BP reported on Tuesday that operations at its 440,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Whiting, Indiana, were impacted by flooding caused by a severe thunderstorm overnight, which could negatively affect the facility’s crude demand. This site is a crucial fuel producer for the Midwest market.
IEA insights on oil market
Recent data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) emphasizes that global oil supply disruptions remain a major factor influencing price volatility. In its August 2025 Oil Market Report, the IEA states that while non-OPEC production is on the rise, uncertainties surrounding geopolitical events—especially those related to Russian sanctions—continue to hinder supply growth. The report estimates that adherence to Russian crude export restrictions by Europe and the United States could lead to a reduction in global oil availability by almost 1 million barrels per day, thereby contributing to upward price pressures. Similarly, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook that global oil inventories will remain below five-year averages until the end of 2025, indicating tighter market conditions.
Read more: Crude oil prices drop to $66.20 amid upcoming peace talks between Russia and Ukraine
OPEC+ adjustments and price stability
Furthermore, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its monthly bulletin highlights that OPEC+ production adjustments, particularly output cuts by Saudi Arabia and other members, have been instrumental in stabilizing prices amid an uncertain demand landscape. The EIA also reports that refinery disruptions akin to BP’s Whiting incident have led to a nationwide decline in crude oil processing capacity, which could further bolster oil prices. Additional insights from the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Energy reveal concerns that a prolonged conflict and sanctions will continue to impede European energy security efforts, creating a complex backdrop for oil markets.
