Oil prices remained relatively stable on Wednesday after experiencing a decline in the previous session, following an industry report that revealed U.S. crude stockpiles increased last week. This trend indicates that the end of the seasonal summer demand period is approaching.
Brent crude futures saw a slight uptick of 6 cents, reaching $66.18 a barrel after a 0.8 percent drop in the prior session. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures held steady at $63.17 after a decline of 1.2 percent.
U.S. crude inventories rise
According to market sources citing figures from the American Petroleum Institute, crude inventories in the U.S.—the world’s largest oil consumer—rose by 1.52 million barrels last week. While gasoline inventories fell, distillate inventories showed a minor increase.
If the U.S. Energy Information Administration releases data later on Wednesday that also reflects a decline, it could suggest that consumption during the summer driving season has peaked, leading refiners to reduce their production runs. This demand period typically spans from the Memorial Day holiday at the end of May to the Labor Day holiday in early September.
Recent outlooks from OPEC and the EIA, released on Tuesday, indicated that increased production this year is also placing downward pressure on prices. However, both organizations predict that output in the U.S.—the world’s largest producer—will decrease in 2026, while production in other regions is set to rise for both oil and natural gas.
The EIA’s monthly report anticipates that U.S. crude production will reach a record 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025, driven by enhancements in well productivity. Nonetheless, lower oil prices are expected to result in reduced output in 2026.
OPEC’s demand projection for 2026
In parallel, global liquid fuels production is projected to increase by 2 million barrels per day in the latter half of 2025 compared to the first half. Half of this growth is expected to come from OPEC+, while the remainder will primarily be from non-OPEC producers such as the U.S., Brazil, and Canada. However, the swift accumulation of inventories is likely to exert significant pressure on oil prices through 2026, with inventories forecasted to rise by 1.9 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025 and 2.3 million barrels per day in early 2026—levels historically linked to sharp price declines.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ monthly report stated that global oil demand is projected to increase by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, which is an upward revision of 100,000 barrels per day from the previous forecast. The 2025 outlook remains unchanged.
On Tuesday, the White House dampened expectations for a swift Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, which may lead investors to reconsider the possibility of an imminent end to the conflict and any easing of sanctions on Russian supply, factors that had been supporting prices.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss potential resolutions to the ongoing war.
