Oil prices maintained the gains achieved last week early on Monday as investors awaited the U.S.-China trade discussions scheduled to take place in London later in the day.
Brent crude futures remained steady at $66.47 a barrel at 00:08 GMT (now trading above $66.4). Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude saw a slight increase of 1 cent, trading at $64.59 (currently above $64.5).
Both contracts experienced an increase of more than 4 percent last week, buoyed by a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report and renewed trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, which alleviated concerns regarding a potential global economic downturn.
The potential for a U.S.-China trade agreement lent support to oil prices, as three of Donald Trump’s senior aides were scheduled to meet with their counterparts in London on Monday for the inaugural session of the U.S.-China economic and trade consultation mechanism.
This announcement on Saturday followed an unusual Thursday call between the top leaders of both nations, who are under pressure to ease tensions due to China’s export restrictions on rare earths, which have been disrupting global supply chains. Oil prices marked their first weekly gain in three weeks following this news.
China’s economic data release
Adding to the market’s caution, China is set to release a series of economic data early Monday, including inflation and export statistics, amidst worries about the robustness of domestic demand in the world’s second-largest economy. Weak trade data, coupled with the ramifications of ongoing U.S. tariffs, continue to impact Chinese manufacturing and export competitiveness.
The prevailing subdued sentiment reflects investors’ wait-and-see approach, with overall market mood dependent on the outcomes of Monday’s diplomatic discussions in London. The inflation data from China on Monday morning will provide insights into domestic demand from the world’s largest crude importer.
The anticipated economic data and the possibility of a trade agreement that could bolster economic growth and enhance oil demand outweighed concerns surrounding increased OPEC+ supply, following the group’s announcement of another significant output increase for July on May 31.
HSBC projects that OPEC+ will likely accelerate supply hikes in August and September, which could elevate downside risks to the bank’s forecast of $65 per barrel for Brent crude in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to a research note released on Friday. Reuters reported, citing researchers from Capital Economics, that they believe this “new faster pace of (OPEC+) production rises is here to stay.”
