The global air cargo sector experienced robust annual demand growth in August, marking the ninth consecutive month of double-digit increases, as reported by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Overall demand, indicated by cargo ton-kilometers (CTKs), rose by 11.4 percent compared to levels in August 2023, with international operations seeing a 12.4 percent increase. This notable growth has led to totals reaching heights not observed since the record levels of 2021.
Capacity increases
Capacity, measured in available cargo ton-kilometers (ACTKs), increased by 6.2 percent year-on-year for August, with international operations up by 8.2 percent. This growth was primarily driven by a 10.9 percent rise in international belly capacity, bolstered by the passenger markets. The industry-wide capacity has reached an all-time peak.
Middle Eastern market performance
Middle Eastern airlines recorded a 13.5 percent year-on-year increase in air cargo demand for August. Notably, the Middle East–Europe market excelled with a surge of 28.9 percent, outpacing the Middle East-Asia market, which grew by 13.5 percent. Capacity for August also saw a 4.0 percent year-on-year increase.
Rising yields
Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, noted that the developments in air cargo markets were very encouraging. He mentioned that the sector had now recorded two consecutive months of record-high demand year-to-date. He emphasized that even with unprecedented capacity levels, yields had risen by 11.7 percent from 2023, a 2 percent increase from the prior month, and were 46 percent above pre-pandemic figures. He attributed this strong performance to gradual growth in global trade, a booming e-commerce sector, and ongoing capacity constraints in maritime shipping.
Economic factors at play
Several key factors in the operating environment should be highlighted. Industrial production remained stable month-on-month in August, while global cross-border trade saw a slight decline of 0.3 percent. In August, both the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for global manufacturing output and the PMI for new export orders fell below the neutral mark, recording 49.9 and 48.4 respectively, signaling contraction. Inflation presented a mixed picture; in the U.S. and EU, inflation rates dropped to 2.6 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, the lowest since 2021. Conversely, Japan’s inflation rose by 0.3 percentage points to 3.0 percent, the highest in ten months, while China’s inflation continued its gradual increase, growing by 0.1 percentage points to 0.7 percent, its highest rate in six months.
Regional demand highlights
In terms of regional performance, Asia-Pacific airlines led the way with a 14.6 percent year-on-year increase in air cargo demand for August, the strongest among all regions. Demand in the Asia-Africa, Asia-Europe, and intra-Asia markets grew by 21.2 percent, 18.4 percent, and 16.1 percent, respectively. However, intra-Asia demand growth declined by 5.0 percentage points from the previous month, partly due to social unrest in Bangladesh and Typhoon Shanshan in Japan, which affected local logistics with airport closures and flight cancellations. Overall capacity increased by 8.6 percent year-on-year.
North American and European trends
North American carriers reported a 4.8 percent year-on-year increase in air cargo demand for August, the lowest growth among regions. The Asia-North America trade lane, the largest by volume, saw a 9.3 percent year-on-year increase, while the North America-Europe route experienced a more modest rise of 6.1 percent. Capacity for August grew by 2.4 percent year-on-year.
European airlines recorded a 13.5 percent year-on-year increase in air cargo demand for August. The Middle East–Europe trade lane led this growth with an impressive 28.9 percent increase, continuing a trend of double-digit annual growth that began in September 2023. The Europe–Asia route, the second-largest market, grew by 18.4 percent, and intra-Europe demand also saw double-digit growth, rising by 15.0 percent. August capacity increased by 9.4 percent year-on-year.
Performance in Latin America and Africa
Latin American airlines reported a 14.2 percent year-on-year increase in air cargo demand for August, with capacity also rising by 8.0 percent. African airlines experienced a 7.5 percent year-on-year increase in air cargo demand for August. Demand on the Africa–Asia route rose by 21.1 percent compared to August 2023, maintaining a trend of double-digit annual growth that began in the latter half of 2023. Capacity for August increased by 11.4 percent year-on-year.
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