Goldman Sachs Research has highlighted the potential of generative artificial intelligence (AI) to drive significant economic growth and productivity gains. The investment bank’s report notes that advances in natural language processing, combined with the increasing availability of large datasets, are creating opportunities for generative AI to transform a range of industries, including healthcare, finance, and retail.
The report predicts that the adoption of generative AI could lead to a 7% increase in global GDP, equivalent to almost $7 trillion in economic value. Furthermore, it could lift productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points over a 10-year period, which would be a significant boost to the global economy.
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However, the analysis also notes that the widespread adoption of generative AI will require significant investment in research and development, as well as the development of new skills and training programs for workers.
Additionally, the study revealed that a new wave of AI systems may also have a major impact on employment markets around the world. Shifts in workflows triggered by these advances could expose the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs to automation.
The creation of new jobs as a result of technological innovations has historically offset jobs displaced by automation. The report notes that the emergence of new occupations, such as webpage designers, software developers, and digital marketing professionals, accounts for the vast majority of long-term employment growth. This job creation has also had follow-on effects, as the boost to aggregate income indirectly drove demand for service sector workers in industries such as healthcare, education, and food services.
Moreover, the paper cites a study by economist David Autor, which found that 60% of today’s workers are employed in occupations that did not exist in 1940, indicating that more than 85% of employment growth over the last 80 years can be attributed to the technology-driven creation of new positions.
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