The United Nations (UN) has projected that the global artificial intelligence (AI) market could reach $4.8 trillion by 2033, which is equivalent to the size of Germany’s economy, raising concerns regarding the potential impact on jobs worldwide. According to a new report from the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), nearly half of jobs globally could be affected by the rapid advancement of AI.
While AI is a transformative force, concerns arise
While AI is viewed as a transformative force capable of driving economic growth and creating opportunities, the report warns that this technology may also exacerbate existing inequalities. UNCTAD highlighted that AI could impact up to 40 percent of jobs globally, offering productivity gains but also raising significant concerns about automation and job displacement. Historically, previous waves of technological advancements have primarily affected blue-collar jobs. However, UNCTAD noted that AI is poised to impact knowledge-intensive sectors the most, making advanced economies particularly vulnerable. These economies, while better equipped to leverage the benefits of AI, will face challenges in managing the widespread effects on employment.
Automation benefits and deepening inequalities
The report also cautioned that the benefits of AI-driven automation often favor capital over labor, which could deepen inequalities. The displacement of low-cost labor in developing countries could diminish their competitive advantage, further widening the gap between developed and developing economies.
UNCTAD’s call for people-first policies
In her statement, UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan emphasized the importance of placing people at the center of AI development. She urged stronger international cooperation to focus on “people-first” policies and enable countries to co-create a global AI framework that fosters inclusive economic growth. “History has shown that while technological progress drives economic growth, it does not, on its own, ensure equitable income distribution or promote inclusive human development,” Grynspan stated.
Frontier technologies and market growth
The UNCTAD report also revealed that in 2023, frontier technologies such as AI, blockchain, 5G, and 3D printing represented a $2.5 trillion market. This figure is expected to grow sixfold, reaching $16.4 trillion by 2033, with AI emerging as the dominant technology in this sector. By 2033, AI is expected to constitute a $4.8 trillion market.
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Access to AI infrastructure concentrated in a few economies
However, the report warned that access to AI infrastructure and expertise is currently concentrated in a few economies, particularly the United States and China, which together account for 40 percent of global corporate research and development spending. “Countries should act now,” the agency advised, emphasizing that by investing in digital infrastructure, building capabilities, and strengthening AI governance, nations can harness AI’s potential for sustainable development.
Opportunities for new industries and workforce empowerment
UNCTAD also highlighted that AI is not solely about job displacement but has the potential to create new industries and empower workers. To fully capitalize on these opportunities, the agency stressed the importance of investing in reskilling, upskilling, and workforce adaptation.
Need for global participation in AI governance
The report underscored the need for global participation in AI governance discussions, noting that 118 countries, mostly in the Global South, are currently absent from major AI policy-making platforms. As AI regulation and ethical frameworks continue to develop, UNCTAD emphasized that developing nations must be included in these conversations to ensure that AI serves global progress, rather than the interests of a select few.
Concerted efforts for equitable development
As AI continues to shape the economic landscape, the UN agency calls for a concerted effort to ensure the technology is deployed in a way that benefits all nations and promotes equitable development worldwide.
