The global economy risks missing out on more than $1.5 trillion of economic growth by 2030 due to the late delivery of mega projects, according to an industry expert.
Despite record levels of investment, the ability to deliver projects on time, within budget, and with the promised economic and societal benefits remains exceptional, as stated by delivery consultants and construction experts Mace in their report titled ‘The Future of Major Programme Delivery.’
The new report, which analyzed over 5,000 mega and giga-projects from countries around the globe, reveals for the first time that 11 percent are at risk of significant delay or cancellation.
Mace examines different delivery approaches in the report and suggests actionable solutions centered around more collaborative models. These include a focus on outcomes, a ‘one team’ approach, and shared risk and reward.
The report also emphasizes the importance of taking additional time upfront to ensure readiness, defining and agreeing on good governance, and establishing clear scope definitions and cost realism.
Mace highlights that the commissioning of major programs—whether for energy, high-speed rail, hospitals, homes, schools, or flood defenses—has surged by 280 percent since 2010, a trend expected to continue as climate change and urbanization advance.
Dominated by the U.S., which has announced 1,663 projects since 2010, and driven by countries like India (729), Saudi Arabia (577), and the UK (484), data from the report indicates that programs are becoming larger, more complex, and more expensive.
Partly driven by political support and public investment, the top 10 live global projects analyzed have a combined total value of $685 billion.
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Need for agile and collaborative delivery models
Mace Consult CEO Davendra Dabasia stated: “When large-scale programs are significantly delayed and go over budget, the focus on the positive impact they have is diluted. When major programmes exist to deliver beneficial outcomes for society, it’s a factor that needs to be addressed.”
“Many of the issues are systemic, often driven by national politics and policies, and reflect the challenging ecosystem that delivery takes place in,” noted Dabasia.
“As major projects and programmes become larger and more complex, delivery models need to be agile to tackle challenges and capitalize on any new opportunities. The solution must rest with more collaborative delivery approaches that prioritize the creation of integrated teams aligned to common goals that seek the same positive outcomes,” he added.
Christopher Seymour, managing director for the Middle East and Africa at Mace Consult, remarked: “This report arrives at a pivotal moment, with the Middle East and Africa region—particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia—at the epicenter of a global construction boom.”
“Saudi Arabia alone has seen a 643 percent increase in the number of active megaprojects since 2010, driven by Vision 2030 and landmark programmes like Diriyah, Qiddiya, and King Salman International Airport,” stated Seymour.
“The scale and complexity of major programmes like these demand a delivery approach that is collaborative, integrated, and focused on outcomes. It is about building trust, aligning incentives, and creating a one-team culture that empowers people to make the right decisions for the program or project, not just their organization,” he added.
Increasing risk of delay with project size
The Mace report highlights that as projects grow in size and scope, so does the risk of delay. With longer timeframes, there is a higher chance of encountering significant external events such as price shocks, wars, or political upheaval.
This is notwithstanding new digital tools, including AI systems that integrate cost and time overlays, and automation of processes designed to help boost productivity and enhance human capability, the report added.
The paper clarifies that the challenges faced in delivery are not a reflection of a lack of capability within the supply chain, but rather issues such as high levels of bureaucracy, protracted consent processes, and changes in scope and funding that the industry must overcome.
This is compounded by optimism bias, incomplete designs, and pressure to ‘get spades in the ground’ without proper planning.
The focus on tackling these challenges and the subsequent impact on cost and schedule continues to detract from the beneficial outcomes of these programmes.
The report indicates that collaborative approaches can lead to a 4 to 13 percent reduction in cost and a 50 percent reduction in the risk of projects being delivered late.
With more than 11,000 live mega-programmes and 250 giga-programmes currently in delivery around the globe, and the number growing, proponents of the report hope that the emphasis will be on the value these projects bring rather than on how they are delivered.
