In the first quarter of 2024, global trade trends turned positive. The value of trade in goods increased by around 1 percent quarter-over-quarter, while services trade grew by about 1.5 percent, according to the latest Global Trade Update released by the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
Drivers of growth
The growth was primarily driven by increased exports from China (9 percent), India (7 percent), and the United States (3 percent). In contrast, Europe’s exports showed no growth, and Africa’s decreased by 5 percent.
Expected impact on trade value
The report estimates that the increase will add approximately $250 billion to trade in goods and $100 billion to services trade in the first half of 2024 compared to the second half of 2023.
Cautiously optimistic outlook
The short-term trade outlook is cautiously optimistic, as the global forecasts for GDP growth remain at around 3 percent for 2024. If the positive trends persist, global trade in 2024 could reach almost $32 trillion, though it is unlikely to surpass the record level seen in 2022.
Developing countries and South-South trade
Trade in developing countries and South-South trade increased by about 2 percent in both imports and exports during the first quarter of 2024. Developed countries, on the other hand, saw flat imports and a modest 1 percent rise in exports. Despite the increase, South-South trade’s value is still significantly below the levels of 2022, with its four-quarter moving average remaining negative at -5 percent.
Read more: WTO’s $648 billion funding helps integrate developing economies into global trade
Sectoral variations in trade growth
The report highlights that trade growth varied significantly across sectors, with green energy and artificial intelligence-related products experiencing stronger increases. The trade value of high-performance servers rose by 25 v compared to the first quarter of 2023, while other computers and storage units saw an 8 percent increase.
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