The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has forecasted that global trade will reach an unprecedented $33 trillion in 2024, marking a $1 trillion increase from 2023.
This reflects an annual growth rate of 3.3 percent, highlighting the resilience of international trade in the face of ongoing challenges.
As per UNCTAD’s most recent Global Trade Update, the growth in trade services, which saw a 7 percent increase this year, played a significant role in this expansion, accounting for half of the total growth.
In contrast, trade in goods experienced a more modest rise of 2 percent, remaining below the peak levels observed in 2022.
The report pointed out that developing economies, which have historically been pivotal in driving global trade, faced notable challenges. These economies experienced a 1 percent drop in imports and a similar decline in South-South trade during the third quarter of 2024.
Moreover, advanced economies spearheaded the growth for the quarter, with stable demand resulting in a 3 percent increase in imports and a 2 percent rise in exports.
Opportunities despite challenges
Despite these challenges, the report underscored potential opportunities for developing nations to tap into high-growth sectors. Trade in information and communication technology (ICT) goods and apparel surged by 13 and 14 percent, respectively, in Q3 2024, highlighting the potential for diversification into value-added industries.
Sector-specific data indicated declines in traditional industries crucial to developing economies. Energy trade fell by 2 percent in Q3 and by 7 percent over the year, while the trade in metals contracted by 3 percent.
The automotive sector also saw a 3 percent decline in Q3, but it is anticipated to conclude the year with an annual growth rate of 4 percent.
Meanwhile, stable global growth projections and decreasing inflation present promising opportunities for enhancing resilience in 2025.
