Moody’s has raised its growth forecast for Saudi in 2023 and 2024.
The upward revision to Saudi’s real GDP growth forecast reflects expectations that non-oil private sector activity will remain strong.
Moody’s published its macro forecasts for the G20 economies (which includes Saudi) and conducted upward revisions to growth forecasts for 2023 in the United States, the euro area, and China. The credit rating agency raised growth forecasts for India, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey.
The agency predicted that growth in the Kingdom would have recorded 8.7 percent in 2022 from 7.4 percent in its previous forecast in November, 2.5 percent in 2023 (from 1.7 percent), and 3 percent in 2024 (from 2.6 percent).
Moody’s has now forecast India’s real GDP growth to be 5.5 percent in 2023, up from its previous forecast of 5 percent, and to reach 6.5 percent in 2024.
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Economic momentum in several large emerging market countries, including India, Brazil, Mexico and Turkey, has proven more resilient to last year’s tightening in the global and domestic financial environment than it had expected.
The agency predicted that the final slowdown in tightening monetary policy in the United States will help stabilize, if not improve, capital flows to emerging-market countries. “However, emerging markets will remain vulnerable to bouts of increased volatility in financial markets until inflation in advanced economies is tightly controlled,” Moody’s said.
For G20 economies, Moody’s expects growth to moderate to 2 percent in 2023 from 2.7 percent in 2022, and then improve to 2.4 percent in 2024.
For the G20 advanced economies, the growth estimate for 2022 now stands at 2.3 percent, up from the agency’s previous forecast of 2.1 percent.
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