Oil prices trimmed some of the previous session’s gains on Friday, with Brent futures falling $1.64 after the White House delayed its decision on U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. Despite this session’s losses, oil prices were still headed for a third consecutive weekly gain.
Brent crude futures fell $1.64, or 2.08 percent, to $77.21 a barrel by 4:40 GMT. Weekly, it was up 3.8 percent. Meanwhile, the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for July, which did not settle on Thursday due to a U.S. holiday, was up 53 cents, or 0.71 percent, to $75.67.
U.S. delays involvement decision
Oil prices gained almost 3 percent on Thursday as tensions in the Middle East escalated, with no signs of a ceasefire yet. However, prices dropped following the White House‘s statement, which revealed that President Donald Trump will decide whether the U.S. will get involved in the Israel-Iran conflict in the next two weeks.
“Crude oil prices have remained volatile over the past week, driven largely by escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel,” said Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer, Century Financial.
Notably, Iran is the third-largest producer among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, extracting about 3.3 million barrels per day of crude oil. About 18 million to 21 million bpd of oil and oil products move through the Strait of Hormuz along Iran’s southern coast, and there is widespread concern that the conflict could disrupt trade flows.
Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst and head of research at Global Risk Management, said that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be an “absolute nightmare” for the oil market. He added, “If Iran blocks this narrow chokepoint, it could affect up to 20 percent of global oil flows. A closure would likely send oil prices above $100.”
Read: Oil prices above $100? How a Strait of Hormuz closure could impact global energy market
Wider regional conflict can drive crude as high as $150
Looking ahead to Q3 2025, the trajectory of oil prices remains highly dependent on developments in the Iran-U.S. standoff. Valecha said a de-escalation could see prices pull back to the $60–70 range, while a wider regional conflict may drive crude as high as $100–150 per barrel.
“On the supply side, U.S. inventory data released June 18 added further support,” he added. The API reported a massive drawdown of 10.133 million barrels, while EIA data confirmed an even larger decline of 11.473 million barrels, both well above expectations. The data signaled tightening supply, further reinforcing bullish sentiment.
