OPEC revealed its forecast indicating that global oil demand in 2026 is expected to increase at a rate comparable to that of this year. This announcement comes alongside a revision of its projections for 2024, which marks the sixth reduction, attributed to ongoing economic challenges in China, recognized as the world’s largest oil importer.
The 2026 outlook aligns with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ long-term perspective that oil consumption will continue to rise for the next two decades. This stands in stark contrast to the International Energy Agency’s prediction from the West, which suggests that oil demand will peak within this decade as the world transitions towards cleaner energy alternatives.
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In its monthly report, OPEC indicated that demand is projected to grow by 1.43 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, reflecting a growth rate similar to the anticipated increase of 1.45 million bpd for this year. The 2026 estimate is presented as OPEC’s inaugural projection in its monthly review.
“Transportation fuels are set to drive 2026 oil demand growth, with air travel expected to see continued expansion, as both international and domestic traffic continues to increase,” OPEC stated in the report.
Sixth consecutive downward adjustment for 2024
Additionally, a table presented in the report indicated that the forecast for demand growth in 2024 has been adjusted to 1.5 million bpd, down from the 1.61 million bpd noted in the previous month’s report. This adjustment represents a sixth consecutive downward revision for the 2024 forecast, which initially predicted a rise of 2.25 million bpd in July 2024.
OPEC’s outlook on oil demand is situated towards the upper end of industry expectations. Earlier on Wednesday, the IEA projected a more tempered growth rate for global oil demand in 2025, estimating an increase of 1.05 million bpd.
