Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports rose to their highest level in three months in September. The country’s exports rose by 0.080 million barrels per day (bpd) to 5.751 million bpd from 5.671 million bpd in August, according to the latest report from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI).
At the same time, Saudi Arabia’s oil production fell to 8.975 million bpd from 8.992 million bpd in August. Crude throughput from refineries rose by 0.035 million bpd to 2.756 million bpd, the data showed, while direct crude burning declined by 296,000 bpd to 518,000 bpd.
Overall crude production rises
The report also reveals that overall crude production rose by 161 kb/d annually in September while NGL production rose by 293 kb/d. However, oil demand fell by 3.5 mb/d in September compared to August and rose by 1.4 mb/d compared to September 2023. Crude inventories rose by 5.4 million barrels in September while product inventories gained 6.8 million barrels compared to August 2024.
Notably, Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest exporter of crude oil. OPEC recently cut its 2024 global oil demand growth forecasts, highlighting weakness in China, India, and other regions, marking the producer group’s fourth consecutive downward revision in the 2024 outlook.
OPEC said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month. Until August, OPEC had kept the outlook unchanged since its first forecast in July 2023. In the report, OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd.
China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade. OPEC trimmed its Chinese growth forecast to 450,000 bpd from 580,000 bpd and said diesel use in September fell year-on-year for a seventh consecutive month.
Read: OPEC and IEA diverge widely on oil demand projections through 2050
Output cuts to unwind
Meanwhile, the IEA forecasts global oil supply to exceed demand by more than one million barrels per day in 2025, even if cuts remain in place from OPEC+. Supply curbs by OPEC and its allies, including Russia, remain in place until December when some members are scheduled to start unwinding the production cuts. The group is currently cutting 5.86 million barrels per day of output, equal to about 5.7 percent of global demand. OPEC+ agreed to those cuts in separate steps since 2022 to support the market.
