Despite near-term challenges, global spending is still projected to surpass $1.57 trillion in 2025 and it is anticipated to reach $2.02 trillion by 2029 – a year later than previously anticipated. This growth is driven by structural shifts in trade, investment, and corporate travel behavior. These findings come from the latest GBTA Business Travel Index (BTI) Outlook – Annual Global Report & Forecast, released by the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) at its annual convention in Denver.
The GBTA BTI projects spending growth of 6.4 percent in 2027 and 6.3 percent in 2028, modestly higher than a year ago. However, this growth’s pace and trajectory depend heavily on the resolution – or escalation – of global trade tensions.
“As we thoughtfully anticipate reaching a new high in business travel spending this year, the outlook is steady – but the road ahead is more complex,” said Suzanne Neufang, CEO of GBTA. “Trade policy uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and shifting global supply chains are reshaping how and where companies travel. This latest forecast reflects the resiliency of business travel and our industry as well as the acknowledgment of the risks ahead.”
The latest forecast reflects a moderation from double-digit gains of the past two years. Trade policy uncertainty has emerged as a key risk leading to downward revisions in business travel growth projections for 2025 (from 10.4 percent projected a year ago, to 6.6 percent now), and 2026 (from 9.2 percent projected a year ago, to 8.1 percent now).
Top markets for business travel
Spending figures for 2024 were also adjusted in this latest forecast – spending rose to $1.47 trillion, slightly below the previously projected $1.48 trillion. While this still marked a new high, real inflation-adjusted spending remains 14 percent below pre-pandemic levels, underscoring a slower recovery in travel volume.
In the 2025 forecast, the top 15 markets for business travel spending represent $1.3 trillion. The two top markets – the U.S. ($395.4 billion) and China ($373.1 billion) – together represent 58 percent of that total. The U.S. is projected to reclaim the top spot this year followed by China (which led the list in 2024 and 2023), Germany, Japan, and the U.K. India, South Korea, and Turkey are among the fastest growing among the top 15 markets, while Spain and the Netherlands are forecast to have little to no growth or a slight decrease.
Business travel spending across industries will also continue to vary. Trade-sensitive sectors such as Manufacturing (which accounts for nearly one-third of global business spending) and Wholesale Trade face heightened risks if trade tensions further escalate. Service sectors like Arts & Entertainment and Professional Services have exceeded pre-pandemic benchmarks, with some growing travel spend by over 20 percent. Looking ahead, Mining and Information and Communication are each expected to post the strongest growth in business travel spend, while Agriculture faces the weakest outlook amid shrinking access to export markets.
Adoption of expense systems
A global survey of over 7,300 business travellers across 33 countries in North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East reveals continued evolution and confidence in the value of traveling for work. Business travel is seen as valuable, with 86 percent rating their trips as worthwhile. Primary trip purposes cited vary by region, with training and conferences topping the list globally. Most travellers (74 percent) took between one and five trips in the past year, and over 80 percent say they are traveling for work as much or more than before 2019. Moreover, average trip spending rose to $1,128 (up from $834 in the 2024 survey). Expense systems are common, with 67 percent using them, and comfort with artificial intelligence booking tools is growing, especially in Asia Pacific where 78 percent reported such comfort. Corporate card access rose to 69 percent, led by North America at 73 percent; however, only half of cardholders are required to use them. Mobile wallet use is also up, with 64 percent adoption globally and 72 percent in Asia Pacific.
The GBTA BTI report, now in its 17th edition, is a comprehensive five-year forecast on business travel spending covering 72 countries and 44 industries and includes insights from more than 7,300 global business travellers. This forecast is produced in partnership with Visa and reflects a continued recovery in nominal terms but signals growing headwinds from global trade tensions and economic uncertainty.
According to the GBTA Business Travel Index (BTI) report 2025, the actual 2023 global business travel spending reached $1.38 trillion, marking a return to approximately 86 percent of the pre-pandemic 2019 level. This demonstrates the sector’s strong recovery trajectory despite inflation and geopolitical pressures.
Shifts in traveler behavior
In 2024, spending adjusted upward slightly to $1.47 trillion, as noted, driven by pent-up corporate demand in North America and Asia-Pacific markets, especially China—which remains a key growth engine despite ongoing trade tensions and pandemic recovery measures.
Forecasts by GBTA also indicate major shifts in traveler behavior, with a rise in “hybrid travel” (mix of remote work and business trips), increased reliance on AI-powered corporate travel platforms (GBTA survey shows 67 percent usage, 78 percent APAC comfort level), and growing incorporation of sustainability measures in travel policies.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) corroborates these forecasts, reporting a 12 percent increase in global business class air travel volume in 2024 over 2023, while airline revenues from corporate travel reached $190 billion in 2024, rebounding from pandemic lows.
Moreover, the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) highlights that the global travel and tourism sector’s contribution to GDP grew by 8.5 percent in 2024, with business travel being a significant component supporting international investment flows and trade relations.
