The U.N. Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts global economic growth to slow to 2.6 percent in 2024, just above the 2.5 percent threshold commonly associated with a recession. This marks the third consecutive year of growth below the pre-pandemic rate, which averaged 3.2 percent between 2015 and 2019.
In a report, UNCTAD warns that the prevailing focus on inflation overshadows urgent issues like trade disruptions, climate change, and rising inequalities. The report calls for structural reforms and coordinated global efforts, proposing a comprehensive strategy that includes both supply-side policies to boost investment and demand-side measures to improve employment and income.
Read more: Global trade forecasted to decline by $1.5 trillion in 2023: UNCTAD
Moreover, the report highlights an uneven post-pandemic recovery across regions:
Africa
Projected to grow at 3.0 percent in 2024, up slightly from 2.9 percent in 2023. However, armed conflicts and climate impacts pose significant challenges in several countries, and the continent’s largest economies – Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa – are underperforming, affecting overall prospects.
South America
Economic growth is slowing, with Brazil expected to grow at 2.1 percent, hampered by external pressures and commodity dependence. Argentina faces a 3.7 percent contraction due to inflation and complex debt negotiations.
North America
Growth remains relatively resilient, though challenges continue. The United States is expected to grow at 2.0 percent, reflecting concerns over high household debt levels.
Asia
China targets around 5 percent growth in 2024, capitalizing on robust manufacturing and trade. Additionally, India’s economy is buoyed by strong public investment and service sector growth, with a forecasted expansion of 6.5 percent in 2024. Japan is expected to grow at 1.0 percent amid export demand challenges.
Europe
Major economies experience economic slowdowns, with France, Germany, and Italy projecting growth of 1.3 percent, 0.9 percent, and 0.8 percent, respectively, due to industrial and fiscal challenges.
Oceania
Economic growth in the region, particularly in Australia (1.4 percent growth projected in 2024), is expected to remain subdued, with the low-growth period extending into 2024.
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