Gold prices saw a modest rise on Monday, increasing by 0.58 percent as the U.S. Dollar (USD) continued its decline ahead of a busy economic calendar in the United States (U.S.). Speculation that U.S. President Donald Trump might select a new Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair by September or October negatively impacted the Greenback, which is trading near lows not seen since February 2022.
In Dubai, gold rates have fluctuated, with 24-carat gold priced at AED401.06 and 22-carat gold at AED371.32. Additionally, 21-carat gold is listed at AED354.43, while 18-carat gold stands at AED303.80.
On a global scale, spot gold rose by 0.14 percent, reaching $3,279.97 (currently trading above $3,334). Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures increased by 0.05 percent to $3,289.55 (currently at $3,333). The gold/USD pair is trading at $3,292 after bouncing off daily lows of $3,246 and is poised to conclude June with gains exceeding 0.18 percent. Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, combined with the anticipated announcement of trade deals, limited Bullion’s rise. Citi revealed that gold may consolidate within the range of $3,100 to $3,500 an ounce in the third quarter.
Upcoming economic data for Independence week
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence that the “One Big Beautiful Bill” will progress in the coming hours. This legislation, which narrowly passed the Senate over the weekend, proposes a comprehensive overhaul of the tax code, including broad deductions funded by cuts to Medicaid and green energy programs. This abbreviated week, leading up to U.S. Independence Day on July 4, will include ISM Manufacturing PMI data, ADP employment figures, Initial Jobless Claims, and the Nonfarm Payrolls report for June.
Gold/USD is supported by the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yielding 4.242 percent, a three-basis-point decrease. U.S. real yields, calculated by subtracting inflation expectations from the nominal yield, are also down three basis points to 1.952 percent.
Fed easing expectations
Regarding trade, the U.S. and China are resolving prior issues related to the rare earth minerals deal, and Canada has eliminated its digital services tax for U.S. tech firms, contributing to positive market sentiment that is capping gold prices. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease policy by over 60 basis points (bps) in 2025 are likely supporting gold prices, which tend to thrive during periods of lower interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty. Citi anticipates gold prices will return to the range of $2,500 to $2,700 by the second half of 2026.
The approval of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” is expected to significantly increase the fiscal deficit by $3.8 trillion, which could further weaken the Dollar and enhance demand for the precious metal. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for June is expected to improve from 48.5 to 48.8. In terms of employment data, the ADP Employment Change is projected to rise from 37,000 private jobs added to 85,000. Analysts predict that June’s Nonfarm Payrolls figures will indicate a cooling labor market, projected at 110,000, down from May’s 139,000. Money markets indicate that traders are pricing in 63.5 basis points of easing by the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data.
Gold prices hit one-month low
Gold prices continued their downward trajectory, dipping to around $3,265 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal has fallen to near a one-month low following a trade agreement between the United States (U.S.) and China that has bolstered risk appetite. Investors are now anticipating comments from the Fed later on Monday for new direction. In Dubai, gold rates have varied, with 24-carat gold priced at AED394.50 and 22-carat gold at AED365.50. Additionally, 21-carat gold is recorded at AED350.25, while 18-carat gold stands at AED300.25. Globally, spot gold increased by 0.14 percent, reaching $3,279.97, while U.S. gold futures climbed by 0.05 percent to $3,289.55.
