Gold prices edged up for the fourth straight session on Tuesday, supported by a weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields, as disappointing U.S. jobs data strengthened expectations for a rate cut in September.
In Dubai, gold rates saw an increase, with 24-carat gold rising AED2.75 to AED407.50, and 21-carat gold climbing AED2.50 to AED377.50. Moreover, 21-carat gold saw an upward shift of AED2.50 to AED362.00, while 18-carat gold gained AED2 to reach AED310.25.
Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $3,375.89 per ounce as of 02:39 GMT (currently trading above $3,371.7). U.S. gold futures also advanced by 0.1 percent to $3,430.40 (currently trading above $3,425.00). The dollar index lingered near a one-week low, making gold more accessible to holders of other currencies.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to a one-month low. U.S. employment growth was weaker than anticipated in July, while non-farm payroll figures for May and June were revised down by a staggering 258,000 jobs, indicating a decline in labor market conditions. Traders now perceive a 92 percent probability of a September rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly remarked on Monday that, given the growing evidence of a softening U.S. job market and the absence of persistent tariff-driven inflation, the time for rate cuts is approaching.
Technical resistance levels
Gold, often regarded as a safe-haven asset during times of political and economic uncertainty, typically thrives in a low-interest-rate environment. On the trade front, President Donald Trump once again threatened on Monday to increase tariffs on Indian goods due to its purchases of Russian oil. New Delhi described his statements as “unjustified” and pledged to safeguard its economic interests, exacerbating the trade divide between the two nations.
In other markets, spot silver rose 0.1 percent to $37.44 per ounce, platinum gained 0.1 percent to $1,330.31, and palladium was up 0.2 percent to $1,204.25.
Over the past month, gold’s price has increased 1.19 percent and is up 41.66 percent year-to-date. Analyst forecasts by UBS and Goldman Sachs, as reported by Bullion by Post, project that gold could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, while J.P. Morgan Research anticipates an average price of $3,675/oz in the final quarter of 2025, potentially rising toward $4,000/oz by mid-2026. According to the World Gold Council’s Mid-Year Outlook 2025, gold has surged 26 percent in U.S. dollar terms in the first half of 2025 and continues a record-setting pace.
Labor market updates
On the U.S. bond market side, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.21 percent, near a three-month low, and down 0.18 percentage points over the past month, reflecting investor repositioning amid weaker economic data. Demand for bonds has been reinforced by ongoing trade tensions and anticipation of Fed policy shifts, based on official data from Trading Economics and the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
Regarding the U.S. labor market, July saw the addition of 73,000 net jobs with large downward revisions of 125,000 and 133,000 for May and June, respectively, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and further analysis by Employ America. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2 percent. Over the past three months, job growth has averaged just over 35,000 per month, while the prime-age employment rate fell to 80.4 percent.The National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) also noted that the labor force has decreased by 402,000 since its peak in April 2025, with a substantial drop in foreign-born workers, which adds pressure on economic growth and reduces labor supply.
On the global trade front, President Trump’s threatened to substantially raise tariffs on India over Russian oil deals, with India officially denouncing the move as “unjustified and unreasonable.” India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated it would take all measures necessary to protect its national interests, highlighting the broader geopolitical uncertainty that has contributed to gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
