The World Gold Council has published its Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2025 report, which indicates that gold’s remarkable performance in the first half of 2025 coincided with the U.S. dollar’s worst start to a year since 1973, a shift that has redefined global investment flows.
Gold has maintained its record-setting trajectory, increasing by 26 percent in U.S. dollar terms during the first half of 2025, and achieving double-digit returns across various currencies. A combination of a weaker U.S. dollar, stable interest rates, and a highly uncertain geoeconomic environment has led to robust investment demand.
Gold concluded the first half of the year as one of the top-performing major asset classes, rising 26 percent over the period. It recorded 26 new all-time highs (ATHs) in the first half of 2025, having surpassed 40 new ATHs in 2024.
According to the report, gold surged 26 percent in the first half of 2025, outpacing equities, bonds, and other major asset classes. This surge was fueled by a weaker U.S. dollar, stable interest rates, and increasing geoeconomic uncertainty, which intensified investment demand.
Utilizing its Gold Valuation Framework, the WGC presents three potential scenarios for the second half of the year:
- Base case: modest upside (0–5 percent) as normalization continues.
- Bull case: a further 10–15 percent rise if economic conditions worsen.
- Bear case: potential 12–17 percent pullback if trade risks ease significantly.
Read more: UAE Central Bank boosts gold reserves by 19.3 percent to $7.46 billion in Q1 2025
UAE gold reserves up 19.3 percent
In line with this growing demand for gold, last month, the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates (CBUAE) announced a 19.3 percent increase in its gold reserves during the first quarter of the year, adding AED4.444 billion to reach a total of AED27.425 billion ($7.46 billion) by the end of March, up from AED22.981 billion at the end of 2024. According to the UAE Central Bank’s statistical bulletin, demand deposit balances also grew, surpassing AED1.147 trillion by the end of March, compared to approximately AED1.109 trillion at the end of December 2024. Of this total, AED856.062 billion was held in local currency and AED291.116 billion in foreign currencies.
The gold reserves held by the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates (CBUAE) exceeded AED23 billion ($6.3 billion) by the conclusion of Q3 2024. This represents a month-on-month increase of 5.3 percent, equating to AED1.164 billion ($316.9 million), which raises the total gold reserves to AED23.185 billion ($6.31 billion), compared to AED22.021 billion at the end of August, as reported by WAM.
Since the beginning of 2024, the gold reserves have surged by over 27.76 percent, or more than AED5 billion, rising from AED18.147 billion at the close of 2023.
Egypt’s gold reserves rise $2.2 billion
Similarly, in January 2025, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) announced a significant increase of $2.2 billion in the value of gold held within the nation’s foreign exchange reserves in 2024. This surge raises the total value to $10.644 billion by December 2024, up from $8.440 billion recorded in December 2023.
After a decline in the early months of 2024, the value of gold reserves began to rebound in March, starting at $9.003 billion. The upward trend continued throughout the year, with values recorded at $9.384 billion in April, $9.557 billion in May, $9.485 billion in June, and $9.883 billion in July. The value continued to rise, reaching $10.262 billion in August, $10.723 billion in September, and peaking at $11.154 billion in October. By November, there was a slight decrease to $10.777 billion, culminating in a final value of $10.644 billion in December.
