OPEC oil output fell in March ahead of a scheduled output hike, according to a Reuters survey, as Nigeria curtailed deliveries to domestic refineries while Iranian and Venezuelan supplies dropped amid renewed U.S. efforts to limit these flows. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries produced 26.63 million barrels per day last month, a decrease of 110,000 barrels per day from February’s total. Nigeria, Iran, and Venezuela experienced the most significant drops.
OPEC and its allies, collectively referred to as OPEC+, decided in December to postpone the commencement of output increases by three months, delaying it until April. They also agreed to extend the complete unwinding of production cuts until the end of 2026, citing weak demand and surging production from outside the group as key factors.
Gradual unwinding of output cuts
OPEC+ is beginning to gradually unwind its most recent layer of output cuts. The full extent of this hike will depend, in part, on the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s initiatives to clamp down on the supply from Iran and Venezuela. In March, supply from Nigeria, Iran, and Venezuela each fell by 50,000 barrels per day, as reported in the survey.
Nigeria’s supply challenges
Nigerian supply declined due to reduced deliveries to the Dangote refinery, which offset higher export levels, according to the survey. Nigeria is currently pumping slightly above its OPEC+ target, while Gabon remains the least compliant member of the group.
Read more: OPEC+ to raise oil output by 411,000 bpd in May, citing healthy market fundamentals
Iranian and Venezuelan output drops
Iranian output also fell from February’s figures, which had matched September’s and marked the highest levels since 2018, as indicated by Reuters surveys. This minor decline occurs as the U.S. under Trump renews efforts to exert pressure on Iran’s oil exports. Similarly, Venezuela experienced a decline in exports last month, amid Washington’s imposition of secondary tariffs and the cancellation of licenses to operate within the energy sector.
Output trends in major OPEC producers
Output in OPEC’s two largest producers, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, edged slightly higher, although both nations are still producing below their OPEC+ targets. Meanwhile, production in the United Arab Emirates was reported to be on target.
While the survey and February data provided by OPEC’s secondary sources indicate that the UAE and Iraq are close to meeting their quotas, other estimates, such as those from the International Energy Agency, suggest they are actually producing significantly more. The survey found that there were no substantial increases in output last month.
The Reuters survey aims to track market supply and is based on flow data from financial group LSEG, along with information from companies that monitor flows, such as Kpler, and insights provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC, and various consultants.
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