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Home Features Op-eds UAE, Saudi Arabia venture into the U.S. LNG space

UAE, Saudi Arabia venture into the U.S. LNG space

Gulf countries are expanding their overseas presence and creating partnerships as part of growth plans
UAE, Saudi Arabia venture into the U.S. LNG space
Saudi Aramco aims to secure 7.5 million mt/year of U.S. LNG offtake by 2030

Of the more than $3 trillion in investments pledged by GCC leaders during U.S. president Donald Trumpโ€™s regional tour, U.S. LNG emerged as a top strategic target. This was underscored by Saudi Aramco president and CEO Amin Nasser during the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum in Riyadh where he said: โ€œWe are looking at expanding in LNG, and the U.S. is really a good place to put our investment.โ€

Some of the investments were already committed before Trumpโ€™s visit but Saudi Aramco is looking for further opportunities to grow its LNG portfolio.

QatarEnergy was an early mover into the U.S. LNG space, converting its Golden Pass LNG import terminal to an export facility in 2014. With commissioning expected by the end of 2025, and the first cargo to be shipped in the first quarter of 2026, the 18 million mt/year terminal will become the largest single-phase LNG export facility in the U.S. QatarEnergy Trading will market its 70 percent stake, making it the third-largest buyer of U.S. LNG. Yet despite its early lead,

QatarEnergy has opted not to expand further in the U.S., the worldโ€™s leading LNG exporter. Qatar is instead prioritizing its domestic expansion plans that will nearly double LNG capacity to 142 million mt/year by 2030. Combined with its stake in Golden Pass, QatarEnergyโ€™s total gross LNG output will amount to nearly 160 million mt/year, putting it firmly in second place after the U.S. and ahead of Australia.

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QatarEnergy was an early mover into the U.S. LNG space

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Growing LNG footprint in the U.S.

While QatarEnergy is focusing on domestic expansion, Abu Dhabiโ€™s ADNOC and its subsidiaries are aggressively growing their U.S. LNG footprint. ADNOCโ€™s international arm, XRG, acquired an 11.7 percent stake in the $14.8 billion Rio Grande LNG project in Texas and signed a 1.9 million mt/year offtake deal for a future train.

It also holds options for further equity expansion. Meanwhile, Mubadala Energy recently took a 24.1 percent stake in SoTex, which plans to build the 9.3million t/year Commonwealth LNG terminal in Louisiana.

The UAE was the first Gulf Arab state to export LNG, with the first cargo shipped from Das Island in 1977. However, with capacity of up to 6 million mt/year, ADNOC is a minnow when compared with QatarEnergy. Even when the 9.6 million mt/year Ruwais LNG project comes online in 2028, total capacity will remain less than 16 million mt/year.

Aramco, the newest Gulf entrant in LNG, began building its portfolio through a 49 percent stake in MidOcean Energy, which holds assets in Australia and Peru. MidOcean is pursuing a 30 percent stake in the planned 16.45 million mt/year Lake Charles LNG project.

Aramco itself has signed a sale and purchase agreement for 1.2 million mt/year from Rio Grande Train 4 and is eyeing equity in two more U.S. projects: A 25 percent stake and 5 million mt/year offtake from Sempraโ€™s Port Arthur Phase 2, and a potential role in Woodsideโ€™s 16.5 million mt/year Louisiana LNG project, which reached FID in April. Nasser said Saudi Aramco aims to secure 7.5 million mt/year of U.S. LNG offtake by 2030.

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Qatar is prioritizing its domestic expansion plans that will nearly double LNG capacity to 142 million mt/year by 2030

Clean energy transition

The focus on gas and LNG, both domestic and international, is borne out by data showing robust demand for the cleaner of the fossil fuels in coming decades. Shell, in its LNG Outlook 2025 released in February, raised its forecast for 2040 global LNG demand to 630-718 million tons, at its midpoint, an increase of over 60 percent from the 2024 forecast of 407 million tons.

With demand growth likely to lag supply capacity additions from 2026 through to at least the end of the decade, most analysts expect a period of sustained low prices. However, lower prices should spur a new wave of import projects, locking in demand for decades.

Of this new demand, some 16 million mt/year will be from LNG-powered shipping, a 60 percent hike versus last yearโ€™s forecast of 2030 demand, and four times 2024 demand of just over 4 million mt. In terms of the top global supplier, โ€œThe USA is set to extend its lead as the worldโ€™s largest LNG exporter, potentially reaching 180mn t/y by 2030 and accounting for a third of global supply,โ€ the report said.

Trump has been pressing the European Union to buy more U.S. LNG and there has been an increase in U.S. LNG imports into Europe, replacing Russian gas. U.S. LNG exporters can expect to grow their share of the European market in the second half of the decade after a new EU directive comes into effect. The EU plans to end all imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027, including both pipeline gas and LNG, as part of its REPowerEU initiative.

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Abu Dhabiโ€™s ADNOC and its subsidiaries are aggressively growing their U.S. LNG footprint

Eyes on Asia as the bigger prize

For the Middle Eastern exporters, the focus is on Asia, the biggest growth market for both oil and gas. QatarEnergy deputy chairman, president, and CEO Saad Sherida Al Kaabi has said that he does not see the growth in U.S. LNG capacity as a challenge. โ€œI think U.S. volumes are going to go to certain markets that are mostly in Europe and South America, and our volumes will predominately be serving Asia,โ€ he said at the Qatar Economic Forum on May 20.

Qatari exports to Europe have fallen in recent years as U.S. exports to the continent have swelled. Qatar, meanwhile, has deepened its relationship with China, with Beijing emerging as the largest buyer of Qatari LNG and a major partner through long-term supply deals.

The UAEโ€™s ADNOC, which recently opened offices in Beijing, has also started marketing LNG from Ruwais. It signed a contract with Chinese private-sector energy distribution firm ENN Natural Gas for 1 million mt/year for 15 years from 2028, finalizing a preliminary agreement reached in 2023.

Another sales deal was with state firm Zhenhua Oil for a reported 800,000 mt/year from 2026. While Zhenhua is a new entrant into the LNG sector, it is an established partner of ADNOC, having acquired a 4 percent stake in the 2 million b/dADNOC Onshore concession in 2018.

While Qatar remains the regionโ€™s LNG heavyweight, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are positioning themselves to become global players by tapping into the growing U.S. LNG sector.

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